Global Economics Update United States This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for the US economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 22nd October 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the strong dollar explain the global slowdown? Given the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and finance, policymakers outside the US have suggested that the dollar’s appreciation is partly to blame for the slowdown in the world... 21st October 2019 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update When will Johnson’s Brexit deal be done or dead? This Update analyses the key Brexit events in British Parliament this week and highlights at what pointwe would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Why India’s state elections matter for investors Upcoming state elections could help determine the pace of economic reform in India over the comingyears. A win for the BJP in Haryana could provide reassurance for state assemblies elsewhere... 18th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry not out of the woods yet The global manufacturing PMI picked up again in September, but this was largely due to a jump in China’s index that we don’t think will be sustained. While it is still too early to call time on the... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economies losing further momentum Flash PMIs for September suggest that advanced economies ended Q3 on a weak footing. The surveys also point to weaker exports, jobs growth and core inflation. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Unlawful suspension of UK Parliament trims no deal risk The ruling by the Supreme Court in the UK that the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful, void and of no effect” and that the suspension should be “quashed” as soon as... 24th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will India be a $5 trillion economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 23rd September 2019 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Update Saudi oil attacks add to headwinds for world economy The attack on Saudi oil is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy. Saudi production might resume quite quickly and even if it doesn’t, the implications for oil prices and developed economy... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Uptick in manufacturing PMI offers limited comfort The small uptick in the global manufacturing PMI in August offers little comfort about the state of the world economy. The index still points to very weak global production growth, the downturn in the... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Suspending UK Parliament raises chance of no deal The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14 th October increases the downside risks to the British economy and the pound by decreasing... 28th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest no respite for manufacturing PMI surveys for August imply that growth in advanced economies has slowed further in the third quarter. But one crumb of comfort is that the weakness in manufacturing has not yet weighed much on... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the manufacturing malaise spread to services? The current global economic slowdown may descend into something more serious if manufacturing drags services down with it. Fortunately, there are reasons to think that the spillovers from the... 21st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Yield curve inversions are blind in one eye Inverted yield curves in the US and elsewhere tell us very little about the timing of future downturns and, for now at least, the economic data are more consistent with a slowdown than a downturn in... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Are we already in a global recession? We’re comfortable with our below-consensus forecast for global growth but, for now, the increasingly gloomy view priced into bond markets seems difficult to square with the latest economic data. 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The trade war is only likely to intensify from here While the recent escalation of the US-China trade war may have occurred a bit earlier than even we had anticipated, it fits with our below-consensus forecast for global growth this year and next. What... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
