Global Economics Update Global industry now in recession? May’s drop in the global manufacturing PMI to below the “no change” level of 50 suggests that the industrial downturn has further to run, with the once resilient US economy succumbing to the malaise. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does five more years of Modi mean for India? Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of this year’s elections The recent election results from India, Australia and the European Union won’t have a significant impact on economic policy in the near term. However, upcoming elections in Turkey and Argentina may... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK Prime Minister Theresa May resigns The resignation of the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, supports our recent view that the chances of a Brexitdeal have fallen and that the chances of another delay and a no deal Brexit have risen... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs add to evidence of a slowdown in Q2 After global GDP was stronger than expected in Q1, the continued weakness in the latest business surveys among advanced economies suggests that the world economy will lose steam in the second quarter. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the Coalition victory mean for Australia? The Coalition government’s surprise victory in the Australian federal election won’t make much of a difference for fiscal policy in the near-term but will result in smaller surpluses beyond 2022. It... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Q1 resilience won’t mark the end of the global slowdown Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially ledus to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What might trigger a hard landing in China? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 resilience won’t mark the end of the global slowdown Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially led us to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PBOC and Fed policy loosening won’t hinge on tariffs President Trump’s claim that the PBOC will loosen policy in the months ahead may prove accurate, but this will be a justified response to a weaker economy and not a direct retort to tariffs. And while... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Databank This Databank provides our forecasts out to 2038 for twenty major global economies, covering key macroeconomic and financial market variables. Click on the Excel spreadsheet link below to download the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Saudi Arabia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.5%* and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update France This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for France’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.4% and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Germany This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Germany’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
