Global Economics Update Industrial downturn deepens in Q2 The continued broad-based decline in the global manufacturing PMI in June appears to confirm that the industrial malaise worsened in the second quarter. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Chief Economist's Note: Checking in on our key calls 1st July 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The limits to Libra Facebook’s new currency, Libra, could be a significant step forward in reducing the cost of processing international transactions. However, it is very unlikely to become a widely-used global currency. 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect from India's union budget Given the recent economic slowdown, new Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to announce more accommodative tax and spending measures when she unveils the union budget for this fiscal year on... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 may not live up to (low) expectations It seems likely that Presidents Trump and Xi will agree to another tariff ceasefire on the sidelines of this weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. But given the differences between the two sides, we... 27th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 may not live up to (low) expectations It seems likely that Presidents Trump and Xi will agree to another tariff ceasefire on the sidelines of this weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. But given the differences between the two sides, we... 26th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update China This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for China’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 25th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs paint a bleak picture of Q2 PMI surveys for June imply that the slowdown in advanced economies worsened in the second quarter, as growth in the US dropped back towards the weak pace already experienced in the euro-zone and Japan... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Chief Economist's Note: Problems in Italy still bubbling under the surface 25th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update 5 year prospects: Q2 2019 Global economic growth will slow to its weakest pace since the financial crisis over the next eighteen months. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the United States... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rising wage growth won’t prevent policy loosening Wage growth has strengthened in several advanced economies despite the global economic slowdown. But, outside the UK, we do not expect this to prevent monetary policy loosening. Strong productivity... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What do oil price moves mean for core inflation? Oil prices have fallen close to our end-year forecast and should drag on inflation during the rest of 2019. Admittedly, the risks to our oil price forecast are skewed to the upside. But even a surge... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade war doesn’t account for much of the global slowdown The direct effects of the trade war on global GDP have so far probably been negligible. The indirect impact, via weaker confidence and investment, has been bigger. But we estimate that even this... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
