Global Economics Update Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a major figure in the Iranian regime, in a US airstrike last night has significantly raised the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Iran. We’ve... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Little festive cheer for global industry Final manufacturing PMIs for December weakened a touch in most major economies, suggesting that global industrial activity ended 2019 on a slightly softer note. The surveys are still consistent with a... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect in 2020 We expect the global economy to bottom out around the first quarter of 2020, with growth recovering thereafter. However, the pace of this recovery will be relatively slow and, perhaps most importantly... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Phase One deal doesn’t mark the end of the trade war The details of the reported “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China are sketchy and we are not convinced that it will hold. While the deal removes a downside risk, it does not justify a change... 16th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs underwhelm at the end of 2019 Flash PMIs for December are consistent with advanced economies having lost momentum in Q4, and forward-looking indicators are yet to suggest that a material rebound is around the corner. 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Productivity outlook brighter for the next decade One of the biggest disappointments of this decade has been the stubborn weakness of global productivity growth. While we do not think that this is a permanent shift, a turn-around does not look... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update WTO debilitation adds to signs of end of globalisation The WTO looks set to lose its power to rule on trade disputes this week. This will not immediately transform the economic or policy outlook since the body had been effectively side-lined already. But... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Further signs that global industry has passed the worst Manufacturing PMIs for November suggest that industrial activity strengthened in most regions. This provides another welcome sign that the global industrial downturn may be bottoming out. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Phase one trade deal would do little for global growth We doubt that recent developments in Hong Kong will prevent the US and China reaching a “phase one” trade deal in the coming weeks. But it would do little to boost global growth. And given the... 2nd December 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Industry bottoming out but labour markets to weaken Flash PMIs for November provide further evidence of a stabilisation in the industrial sector. But with labour markets on the cusp of a marked slowdown, overall economic growth is likely to remain... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update CLOs are a small but growing risk to financial stability While we doubt that the growth of collateralised loan obligations has set the stage for a financial crisis in the near term, the risks of one happening further ahead have risen. 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks’ efforts are doing little to boost credit While policy loosening has caused a marked easing of financial conditions around the world, lending growth is still quite subdued. We doubt that this will change, particularly since demand for loans... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update At least the PMIs aren’t getting any worse Manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that global industry remained weak at the start of Q4. However, we take some comfort from the fact that, at the world level, the surveys have stopped... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The end of globalisation Globalisation has peaked. It may stall over the next decade, but a period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely. If this is driven by new technologies, it will not be bad for the world economy... 29th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Worse is still to come for advanced economies Flash PMIs for October indicate that underlying momentum in advanced economies has continued to weaken at the start of Q4. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
