Global Economics Update Industry slammed by coronavirus containment measures February’s slump in the global manufacturing PMI to its lowest level since May 2009 confirms that the nascent industrial recovery has been thrown into reverse. The hit to activity has been largely... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Tightening of DM financial conditions limited… so far Despite the past week’s equity market rout, financial conditions in DMs generally remain accommodative. It’s still early days, but the sell-off would need to go much further before hampering GDP... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Economy more vulnerable to pandemics than in the past While medical advances put the world in a better position than in the past to limit the health consequences of a global pandemic, globalisation and a bigger services sector mean that, other things... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The possible economic fallout of a global pandemic Falls in equity prices and bond yields so far this week reflect fears that coronavirus cases outside China will mark the start of a wider outbreak that deals a blow to the world economy. For now, we... 26th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Coronavirus highlights globalisation under pressure Coronavirus on its own won’t suddenly precipitate a big decoupling between China and the West, but the virus adds to a list of other reasons why a process of de-globalisation lies ahead. 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID-19 impact on DMs limited so far The Flash PMIs for February suggest that, while Japan’s economy has taken a hit from coronavirus-related disruption, there has not yet been much impact on other advanced economies. 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Where are the markets wrong on policy rates in DMs? While we agree with investors’ general view that monetary conditions will be accommodative in DMs this year, there’s a group of countries – including the US – where the markets look too dovish. At the... 20th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Coronavirus to end 43-quarter global growth streak For now, our best guess is that the economic disruption related to the coronavirus will cost the world economy over $280bn in the first quarter of this year. If we’re right, then this will mean that... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks to leave inflation-targeting intact…for now While several central banks are undertaking reviews of their monetary policy frameworks this year, the result is likely to be only small tweaks to the existing inflation-targeting frameworks. But this... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The supply-chain disruption from the coronavirus Emerging Asia is most vulnerable to the coronavirus-related disturbance to manufacturing supply chains. Industry-level data suggest that temporary disruption should have little macroeconomic impact in... 5th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update More signs of stabilisation, albeit prior to virus effects Final manufacturing PMIs for January add to evidence that the sector’s fortunes have turned a corner in recent months. However, due to the coronavirus-related disruption, this general trend of... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Another look at the coronavirus The extensive efforts to contain the coronavirus will cause GDP growth in China and emerging Asia to slow sharply in Q1. We still hope the economic and market disruption will prove temporary. But... 31st January 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Where are we in the business cycle? Having deteriorated throughout 2018-19, the most reliable global economic indicators have stabilised recently, suggesting that the world economy is passing the worst. A range of data for the G7 show... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs add to signs that DMs are passing the trough Flash PMIs for January offer further evidence of stabilisation in the world economy. With forward-looking indicators pointing to a gradual improvement, advanced economies are probably past the worst. 24th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Limited upside from Phase One trade deal The deal signed yesterday between the US and China was broadly as expected and has not led us to change our economic forecasts. The apparent ceasefire in the battle over tariffs removes a downside... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
