Global Economics Update Will India be a $5 trillion economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 23rd September 2019 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Update Saudi oil attacks add to headwinds for world economy The attack on Saudi oil is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy. Saudi production might resume quite quickly and even if it doesn’t, the implications for oil prices and developed economy... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Uptick in manufacturing PMI offers limited comfort The small uptick in the global manufacturing PMI in August offers little comfort about the state of the world economy. The index still points to very weak global production growth, the downturn in the... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Suspending UK Parliament raises chance of no deal The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14 th October increases the downside risks to the British economy and the pound by decreasing... 28th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest no respite for manufacturing PMI surveys for August imply that growth in advanced economies has slowed further in the third quarter. But one crumb of comfort is that the weakness in manufacturing has not yet weighed much on... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the manufacturing malaise spread to services? The current global economic slowdown may descend into something more serious if manufacturing drags services down with it. Fortunately, there are reasons to think that the spillovers from the... 21st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Yield curve inversions are blind in one eye Inverted yield curves in the US and elsewhere tell us very little about the timing of future downturns and, for now at least, the economic data are more consistent with a slowdown than a downturn in... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Are we already in a global recession? We’re comfortable with our below-consensus forecast for global growth but, for now, the increasingly gloomy view priced into bond markets seems difficult to square with the latest economic data. 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The trade war is only likely to intensify from here While the recent escalation of the US-China trade war may have occurred a bit earlier than even we had anticipated, it fits with our below-consensus forecast for global growth this year and next. What... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s next steps in the trade war China is left with few good options to hit back at the US in ways that wouldn’t be self-defeating. Rather than direct retaliation, officials are therefore likely to focus their efforts on broader... 6th August 2019 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that industrial woes are far from over The further fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in July adds to the evidence that industry remained in the doldrums at the start of the third quarter, with forward-looking components suggesting... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply a weak start to Q3 Advanced economy PMI surveys for July revealed that the relatively resilient services sector struggled to support growth, as the industrial downturn deepened. And the latest results of the Global... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Recovery is further off than the IMF assumes The IMF has revised down its global growth forecasts, but they are still much stronger than our own. Its forecasts for advanced economies look particularly optimistic and we think that the changing... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Signals from timely indicators not as bad as they seem Several timely economic indicators have lurched down recently, suggesting that even our below-consensus global growth forecasts might be too optimistic. But some are not as reliable as is often... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Ailing auto sector still a drag on global industry The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly.While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown point... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Ailing auto sector still a drag on global industry The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly. While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
