Global Economics Update Further signs that global industry has passed the worst Manufacturing PMIs for November suggest that industrial activity strengthened in most regions. This provides another welcome sign that the global industrial downturn may be bottoming out. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Phase one trade deal would do little for global growth We doubt that recent developments in Hong Kong will prevent the US and China reaching a “phase one” trade deal in the coming weeks. But it would do little to boost global growth. And given the... 2nd December 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Industry bottoming out but labour markets to weaken Flash PMIs for November provide further evidence of a stabilisation in the industrial sector. But with labour markets on the cusp of a marked slowdown, overall economic growth is likely to remain... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update CLOs are a small but growing risk to financial stability While we doubt that the growth of collateralised loan obligations has set the stage for a financial crisis in the near term, the risks of one happening further ahead have risen. 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks’ efforts are doing little to boost credit While policy loosening has caused a marked easing of financial conditions around the world, lending growth is still quite subdued. We doubt that this will change, particularly since demand for loans... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update At least the PMIs aren’t getting any worse Manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that global industry remained weak at the start of Q4. However, we take some comfort from the fact that, at the world level, the surveys have stopped... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The end of globalisation Globalisation has peaked. It may stall over the next decade, but a period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely. If this is driven by new technologies, it will not be bad for the world economy... 29th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Worse is still to come for advanced economies Flash PMIs for October indicate that underlying momentum in advanced economies has continued to weaken at the start of Q4. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update United States This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for the US economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 22nd October 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the strong dollar explain the global slowdown? Given the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and finance, policymakers outside the US have suggested that the dollar’s appreciation is partly to blame for the slowdown in the world... 21st October 2019 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update When will Johnson’s Brexit deal be done or dead? This Update analyses the key Brexit events in British Parliament this week and highlights at what pointwe would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Why India’s state elections matter for investors Upcoming state elections could help determine the pace of economic reform in India over the comingyears. A win for the BJP in Haryana could provide reassurance for state assemblies elsewhere... 18th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry not out of the woods yet The global manufacturing PMI picked up again in September, but this was largely due to a jump in China’s index that we don’t think will be sustained. While it is still too early to call time on the... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economies losing further momentum Flash PMIs for September suggest that advanced economies ended Q3 on a weak footing. The surveys also point to weaker exports, jobs growth and core inflation. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Unlawful suspension of UK Parliament trims no deal risk The ruling by the Supreme Court in the UK that the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful, void and of no effect” and that the suspension should be “quashed” as soon as... 24th September 2019 · 3 mins read
