Global Economics Update House prices to fall, but not crash Unlike in previous downturns, residential property has not been the root cause this time. Even so, house prices will not escape this recession unscathed. If policy support proves effective, if... 29th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which countries will take the longest to recover? While we expect to see a sharp rebound in global activity once coronavirus-related restrictions are eased, GDP in most economies will still be below its pre-crisis path even after two or three years... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update It’s probably a lot worse than the PMIs suggest As expected, after a dreadful month in March, the Flash PMIs for advanced economies got a whole lot uglier in April. While we suspect that they are not picking up the full scale of the declines in... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Second wave effects: less severe but longer lasting? Plans to ease containment measures have raised fears of a second wave of coronavirus to come. In some ways, the world economy would be better prepared to deal with it. But the development of testing... 22nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Preventing layoffs won’t stop income squeeze Many countries have now announced wage-subsidy programmes to prevent widespread layoffs. Household incomes will still be severely squeezed by pay cuts. Nonetheless, limiting the rise in unemployment... 20th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Modelling the shock to OECD household spending The early evidence suggests that household consumption in OECD economies may not have collapsed by as much as many fear in March. But as the boost from food stockpiling fades, overall consumer... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Five key points on global financial stability The IMF published the first chapter of its Global Financial Stability Report on Tuesday, in which it argued that the COVID-19 crisis poses “a very serious threat to the stability of the global... 16th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the lockdown be lifted? Different countries will adopt different approaches to ending shutdowns but a common theme is likely to be that restrictions are phased out gradually by sector and, perhaps, region. The extent to... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will fiscal policy work quickly enough? There is no doubting that governments have generally pulled out all the stops in announcing big fiscal stimulus programmes. But announcing them is one thing; quickly getting the money to where it is... 14th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the GDP figures fully capture the downturn? The upcoming GDP figures for developed markets will give an indication of the damage the coronavirus was already having by the end of the first quarter. However, even at the best of times, there are... 7th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Modelling the COVID-19 shock We have developed a 45-sector spreadsheet model that allows clients to design their own shutdown scenarios and assess the impact on GDP in 20 major economies. This tool helps to shed light on how the... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What China tells us about the likely shape of recovery The economic recovery underway in China gives some useful pointers to what lies ahead for the rest of the world. An initial increase in activity can happen rapidly once lockdown measures are eased... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs may understate severity of downturn March’s small rise in the global manufacturing PMI was driven entirely by a rebound in China and masked sharp declines elsewhere. The survey already points to falls in global production, but it is... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How quickly will the world economy rebound? The world is heading for the sharpest and deepest global slowdown since WW2. Assuming that the virus is brought under control within a few months, the subsequent rise in world GDP should also be sharp... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Services sector to bear the brunt of global recession Unlike in previous downturns, services are likely to underperform industrial sectors this time around. Consumer-facing services, such as leisure and hospitality, are suffering most already. As the... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The cost of the fiscal stimulus In this Update, we answer some key questions about the fiscal stimulus underway in advanced economies. In short, government deficits are set to soar, probably rising by more than after the financial... 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
