Global Economics Update Where are the markets wrong on policy rates in DMs? While we agree with investors’ general view that monetary conditions will be accommodative in DMs this year, there’s a group of countries – including the US – where the markets look too dovish. At the... 20th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Coronavirus to end 43-quarter global growth streak For now, our best guess is that the economic disruption related to the coronavirus will cost the world economy over $280bn in the first quarter of this year. If we’re right, then this will mean that... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks to leave inflation-targeting intact…for now While several central banks are undertaking reviews of their monetary policy frameworks this year, the result is likely to be only small tweaks to the existing inflation-targeting frameworks. But this... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The supply-chain disruption from the coronavirus Emerging Asia is most vulnerable to the coronavirus-related disturbance to manufacturing supply chains. Industry-level data suggest that temporary disruption should have little macroeconomic impact in... 5th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update More signs of stabilisation, albeit prior to virus effects Final manufacturing PMIs for January add to evidence that the sector’s fortunes have turned a corner in recent months. However, due to the coronavirus-related disruption, this general trend of... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Another look at the coronavirus The extensive efforts to contain the coronavirus will cause GDP growth in China and emerging Asia to slow sharply in Q1. We still hope the economic and market disruption will prove temporary. But... 31st January 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Where are we in the business cycle? Having deteriorated throughout 2018-19, the most reliable global economic indicators have stabilised recently, suggesting that the world economy is passing the worst. A range of data for the G7 show... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs add to signs that DMs are passing the trough Flash PMIs for January offer further evidence of stabilisation in the world economy. With forward-looking indicators pointing to a gradual improvement, advanced economies are probably past the worst. 24th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Limited upside from Phase One trade deal The deal signed yesterday between the US and China was broadly as expected and has not led us to change our economic forecasts. The apparent ceasefire in the battle over tariffs removes a downside... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a major figure in the Iranian regime, in a US airstrike last night has significantly raised the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Iran. We’ve... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Little festive cheer for global industry Final manufacturing PMIs for December weakened a touch in most major economies, suggesting that global industrial activity ended 2019 on a slightly softer note. The surveys are still consistent with a... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect in 2020 We expect the global economy to bottom out around the first quarter of 2020, with growth recovering thereafter. However, the pace of this recovery will be relatively slow and, perhaps most importantly... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Phase One deal doesn’t mark the end of the trade war The details of the reported “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China are sketchy and we are not convinced that it will hold. While the deal removes a downside risk, it does not justify a change... 16th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs underwhelm at the end of 2019 Flash PMIs for December are consistent with advanced economies having lost momentum in Q4, and forward-looking indicators are yet to suggest that a material rebound is around the corner. 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Productivity outlook brighter for the next decade One of the biggest disappointments of this decade has been the stubborn weakness of global productivity growth. While we do not think that this is a permanent shift, a turn-around does not look... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update WTO debilitation adds to signs of end of globalisation The WTO looks set to lose its power to rule on trade disputes this week. This will not immediately transform the economic or policy outlook since the body had been effectively side-lined already. But... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
