Global Economics Update What more can policymakers do? There is much more that central banks could do to ease any strains that appear in financial markets. But with interest rates now more or less back to their effective lower bound in the US, euro-zone... 16th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How much would school closures cost the economy? School closures are one of the main ways in which government attempts to manage the spread of the coronavirus will dent economic activity. While parents can work around the closures to some extent... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the virus be contained with little economic pain? Some countries have managed to control the new coronavirus without large-scale quarantines or economic shutdowns. But they have achieved this by preventing the virus from spreading within the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From economic crisis to banking crisis? One of the few crumbs of comfort amid the turmoil in financial markets over recent days is that the global banking system does not appear to be in imminent danger. This reduces the risk that a severe... 11th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the risk of deflation back? While the drop in oil prices will push inflation down in the near term, the bigger disinflationary risk could stem from the effect of the coronavirus on economic activity. Indeed, we said after the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Oil price slump not a positive for global economy While falling oil prices have historically been deemed a net positive for global demand, there are several reasons to think that the latest slump will only add to the immediate headwinds facing the... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How bad could the coronavirus hit get? Given the uncertainty about how the coronavirus will evolve, and how governments will respond, it is easy to envisage ways in which the hit to global GDP will be larger than the 1%-pt we have now... 4th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update G7 leaves door open to rate cuts, but no promises Today’s G7 statement about likely measures to tackle the effects of the coronavirus fell short of hopes of a major coordinated policy response. This raises the risk that central banks will disappoint... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Policymakers in DMs to respond to coronavirus risks It is now likely that the central banks of major developed markets (DMs) will follow Australia in loosening monetary policy to help their economies weather the impact of the coronavirus. But there is... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Industry slammed by coronavirus containment measures February’s slump in the global manufacturing PMI to its lowest level since May 2009 confirms that the nascent industrial recovery has been thrown into reverse. The hit to activity has been largely... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Tightening of DM financial conditions limited… so far Despite the past week’s equity market rout, financial conditions in DMs generally remain accommodative. It’s still early days, but the sell-off would need to go much further before hampering GDP... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Economy more vulnerable to pandemics than in the past While medical advances put the world in a better position than in the past to limit the health consequences of a global pandemic, globalisation and a bigger services sector mean that, other things... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The possible economic fallout of a global pandemic Falls in equity prices and bond yields so far this week reflect fears that coronavirus cases outside China will mark the start of a wider outbreak that deals a blow to the world economy. For now, we... 26th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Coronavirus highlights globalisation under pressure Coronavirus on its own won’t suddenly precipitate a big decoupling between China and the West, but the virus adds to a list of other reasons why a process of de-globalisation lies ahead. 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID-19 impact on DMs limited so far The Flash PMIs for February suggest that, while Japan’s economy has taken a hit from coronavirus-related disruption, there has not yet been much impact on other advanced economies. 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
