Global Economics Update Trackers: Recovery stalls in US hotspots; Latam lags Our Recovery Trackers suggest that activity generally continued to rebound heading into Q3. But higher infections seem to have taken a toll in some US states, while Latam is the weakest link in the... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Industry rebound partial but rapid With lockdowns continuing to ease across the globe, it was of little surprise that the manufacturing PMIs rose in June. While the PMIs are still considerably below their pre-crisis levels, they have... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs add to upside risks to our Q2 forecasts The latest batch of DM flash PMIs generally came out below 50, which might suggest that output fell a bit further in June compared to May. But we should not read too much into the precise level of the... 23rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Daily Covid Recovery Trackers To help clients get a better sense of the state of recoveries around the world, we have collated some daily indicators that are available in almost all major economies to construct composite Covid... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the fiscal costs of the crisis be dealt with? This Update draws together the conclusions from the various pieces of research that we have published in recent weeks on how the fiscal costs of the crisis will be dealt with. In short, we are... 10th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The varying economic effects of the virus so far Data so far have shown a significant variation in how the virus has affected activity, with economies in Southern Europe hit very hard, the US suffering somewhat less and some Asian economies... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What primary balances are needed to stabilise debt ratios? Public sector debt to GDP ratios are going to rise sharply and, in most cases, governments can tolerate this. But to retain the faith of financial markets, they might still need to make sure that debt... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slow industrial recovery May’s PMIs offer evidence that the global industrial sector is now on the slow road to recovery. But with demand extremely weak, activity is still far below normal levels and price pressures have... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Another global wave of austerity seems unlikely Unlike the period after the global financial crisis, we doubt that we will see a widespread trend of austerity to reduce public sector debt ratios. Nonetheless, austerity will still be undertaken in a... 26th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Debt monetisation: are we already there? On the face of it, it might look like major economies have not yet reached the stage of debt monetisation. Where central banks are buying government bonds, it is on the secondary market, is supposed... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Past the worst, but gradual recovery only May’s Flash PMIs revealed a partial rebound, suggesting that the global economy is past the nadir. But, the recovery in advanced economies appeared slower than that in China, and the services sector... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The virus assumptions underlying our forecasts The future of the coronavirus and measures to contain it are highly uncertain and beyond economists’ expertise. Nonetheless, both will be important in determining the outlook for the global economy... 15th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Interpreting business surveys in a crisis Our best guess is that business surveys, such as the PMIs, understated falls in activity in April and we suspect that the next batch of surveys, released as early as next week, will do so again in May... 14th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update CPI measurement problems dwarfed by other concerns The impact of the lockdowns on the ability of statisticians to collect price data means that measures of inflation will be less accurate than normal. However, this will probably have little impact on... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Industrial output to fall at double-digit pace Manufacturing PMIs for April fell sharply, but the way the surveys are constructed means that conditions may be even worse than the headline figures suggest. Indeed, the sub-components of the surveys... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
