Global Economics Update Mobility trackers showing effects of local lockdowns Our Global Covid Mobility Tracker* has risen in recent weeks, suggesting that the world economy has continued to recover despite rising virus numbers. But the national trackers reveal that renewed... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs show slower pace of improvement August’s rise in the global manufacturing PMI was good news with improvements in economies hit hardest by the virus offering particular relief. But the index points to fairly modest growth and it is... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Upside inflation risks are mainly a few years away On the face of it, the rise in core inflation in several advanced economies in July seems to challenge the idea that lower demand will dominate lower supply in the tug of war over consumer prices. But... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to make of August’s mixed bag of flash PMIs At first sight, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggests that recoveries in advanced economies are heading in different directions. However, this has a lot to do with individual economies being in... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What to make of the catch-up in retail vs industry In the advanced economies, the post-lockdown rebound in retail sales has been considerably faster than that in industrial production. But in China, the opposite has been true. This partly reflects the... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic effects of a vaccine The development of a vaccine would represent a breakthrough in the public health battle against Covid-19, but it would not necessarily transform the immediate economic outlook. 12th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from Q2 and the recovery so far Data for Q2 revealed widespread drops in GDP, but the extent of the damage varied markedly depending on the length and severity of lockdowns. Recoveries since then have followed the same pattern... 6th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Trackers suggest the global recovery is stumbling While high-frequency mobility data should be interpreted with caution, they are now consistent with a marked slowdown in the pace of recovery, dashing hopes of a V-shaped rebound in the world economy. 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Three points and ten charts on the virus While the future of the virus is very uncertain, three things seem clear from recent developments: the pandemic has entered its fifth phase; the Americas are still the global hotspots; and containment... 4th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Disparities emerge between industrial recoveries While the global manufacturing PMI rose again in July, it masked a divergence in the strength of recoveries among major economies. With growing concerns in recent weeks over a resurgence in the virus... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Auto sector rebound set to decelerate While the auto sector was hit particularly hard by the virus lockdowns, sales and production now seem to be recovering. In the near term, this bodes well for economies which rely heavily on vehicle... 3rd August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update DM recovery will probably slow from here Jumps in the European PMIs and further increases elsewhere were another sign that activity in advanced economies continued to improve in July. However, the pace of the recovery is now likely to ease. 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Rebound in retail sales vulnerable to rise in virus cases There has been an encouraging rebound in retail sales across advanced economies as lockdowns have eased, driven by a pick-up in sales of discretionary items such as clothing and furniture and a shift... 16th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: US recovery loses pace; euro-zone powers on In general, our Covid Recovery Trackers continued to improve at the end of Q2 and in the first ten days of July. Things are even looking up a bit in Latin America. But the US recovery risks going into... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Does GDP usually revert to trend after downturns? On the face of it, history doesn’t offer much reassurance that the world economy will be able to return to the path it would have been on had it not been for COVID-19. Indeed, looking back at all the... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Renewed virus outbreaks support our cautious stance Renewed coronavirus outbreaks in some parts of the world have not caused us to rip up our economic forecasts. The initial stages of the recovery have been faster than we feared and we had always... 7th July 2020 · 5 mins read
