Global Economics Update Lessons from Q2 and the recovery so far Data for Q2 revealed widespread drops in GDP, but the extent of the damage varied markedly depending on the length and severity of lockdowns. Recoveries since then have followed the same pattern... 6th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Trackers suggest the global recovery is stumbling While high-frequency mobility data should be interpreted with caution, they are now consistent with a marked slowdown in the pace of recovery, dashing hopes of a V-shaped rebound in the world economy. 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Three points and ten charts on the virus While the future of the virus is very uncertain, three things seem clear from recent developments: the pandemic has entered its fifth phase; the Americas are still the global hotspots; and containment... 4th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Disparities emerge between industrial recoveries While the global manufacturing PMI rose again in July, it masked a divergence in the strength of recoveries among major economies. With growing concerns in recent weeks over a resurgence in the virus... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Auto sector rebound set to decelerate While the auto sector was hit particularly hard by the virus lockdowns, sales and production now seem to be recovering. In the near term, this bodes well for economies which rely heavily on vehicle... 3rd August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update DM recovery will probably slow from here Jumps in the European PMIs and further increases elsewhere were another sign that activity in advanced economies continued to improve in July. However, the pace of the recovery is now likely to ease. 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Rebound in retail sales vulnerable to rise in virus cases There has been an encouraging rebound in retail sales across advanced economies as lockdowns have eased, driven by a pick-up in sales of discretionary items such as clothing and furniture and a shift... 16th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: US recovery loses pace; euro-zone powers on In general, our Covid Recovery Trackers continued to improve at the end of Q2 and in the first ten days of July. Things are even looking up a bit in Latin America. But the US recovery risks going into... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Does GDP usually revert to trend after downturns? On the face of it, history doesn’t offer much reassurance that the world economy will be able to return to the path it would have been on had it not been for COVID-19. Indeed, looking back at all the... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Renewed virus outbreaks support our cautious stance Renewed coronavirus outbreaks in some parts of the world have not caused us to rip up our economic forecasts. The initial stages of the recovery have been faster than we feared and we had always... 7th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: Recovery stalls in US hotspots; Latam lags Our Recovery Trackers suggest that activity generally continued to rebound heading into Q3. But higher infections seem to have taken a toll in some US states, while Latam is the weakest link in the... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Industry rebound partial but rapid With lockdowns continuing to ease across the globe, it was of little surprise that the manufacturing PMIs rose in June. While the PMIs are still considerably below their pre-crisis levels, they have... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs add to upside risks to our Q2 forecasts The latest batch of DM flash PMIs generally came out below 50, which might suggest that output fell a bit further in June compared to May. But we should not read too much into the precise level of the... 23rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Daily Covid Recovery Trackers To help clients get a better sense of the state of recoveries around the world, we have collated some daily indicators that are available in almost all major economies to construct composite Covid... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the fiscal costs of the crisis be dealt with? This Update draws together the conclusions from the various pieces of research that we have published in recent weeks on how the fiscal costs of the crisis will be dealt with. In short, we are... 10th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The varying economic effects of the virus so far Data so far have shown a significant variation in how the virus has affected activity, with economies in Southern Europe hit very hard, the US suffering somewhat less and some Asian economies... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
