Global Economics Update Rebound in DM retail sales less positive than it seems On the face of it, the rebound in retail sales in advanced economies suggests that the consumer sector is leading a V-shaped economic recovery. But other types of spending, including on consumer... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Gap in US/Europe core inflation is not all it seems The latest data have revealed a marked divergence in inflation among advanced economies, with the core rate rising in the US but falling in the euro-zone and the UK. This largely relates to temporary... 7th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Deglobalisation to continue whoever wins US election With the US election result likely to have limited near-term implications for world GDP, the main issue for the global economy is how it affects US trade policy. Joe Biden would take a less aggressive... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q2 GDP Output Breakdown The output breakdown of Q2 GDP showed that virus containment measures hit the hospitality, recreation, and transport sectors hardest, while financial services were relatively unaffected. The more... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest industrial recovery slowed by end of Q3 Today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs suggest that production continued to rebound in September, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the quarter. The big picture, though, is that the state of the... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from second virus waves The experience from second virus waves in Australia, New Zealand and Japan is that consumer spending falls even if governments don’t impose major restrictions. However, there are three key reasons why... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weakening DM recoveries September’s weak batch of flash PMIs suggest that the rebound in activity in DMs seen over the past few months is losing steam, even in the countries where virus numbers are falling. The risk now is... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of “second waves” The fact that most governments were caught on the backfoot in the early stages of the pandemic meant that they had little alternative but to respond with widespread lockdowns. Six months on, a... 22nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s rebound failing to rescue the global economy China’s economic rebound has been about as v-shaped as one could reasonably hope for – but it isn’t boosting growth elsewhere. 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from Australia’s average inflation targeting Inflation has been close to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target since its launch in the 1990s, but this has come at the expense of soaring house prices and household debt. Australia’s... 15th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Mobility trackers showing effects of local lockdowns Our Global Covid Mobility Tracker* has risen in recent weeks, suggesting that the world economy has continued to recover despite rising virus numbers. But the national trackers reveal that renewed... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs show slower pace of improvement August’s rise in the global manufacturing PMI was good news with improvements in economies hit hardest by the virus offering particular relief. But the index points to fairly modest growth and it is... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Upside inflation risks are mainly a few years away On the face of it, the rise in core inflation in several advanced economies in July seems to challenge the idea that lower demand will dominate lower supply in the tug of war over consumer prices. But... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to make of August’s mixed bag of flash PMIs At first sight, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggests that recoveries in advanced economies are heading in different directions. However, this has a lot to do with individual economies being in... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What to make of the catch-up in retail vs industry In the advanced economies, the post-lockdown rebound in retail sales has been considerably faster than that in industrial production. But in China, the opposite has been true. This partly reflects the... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic effects of a vaccine The development of a vaccine would represent a breakthrough in the public health battle against Covid-19, but it would not necessarily transform the immediate economic outlook. 12th August 2020 · 6 mins read
