Global Economics Can we trust the business surveys? A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Mobility data have weakened in many parts of the world in recent weeks as virus numbers either remain high or continue to climb, risking restrictions staying in place for even longer. The latest data... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Aggregate world trade data mask Asia/RoW disparity While Asian goods exports have fared better than those from the rest of the world and especially those from advanced economies over the past year, this performance gap should narrow as economies... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show further rise in manufacturers’ costs The rise in March’s global manufacturing PMI suggested that world industrial production continued to recover. But the headline index masked a divergence at the country level, with sizeable gains in... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to further recovery, strong price pressures March’s advanced economy PMIs painted a positive picture, with headline indices typically now well into expansionary territory. Supply shortages are boosting prices and constraining output to some... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the recent rise in coronavirus infections and associated restrictions are weighing on activity in Latin America, emerging Europe and the euro-zone. In contrast... 23rd March 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Growth of goods spending to ease as services recover The recent pick-up in consumer spending in DMs has been characterised by a sharp rise in spending on goods. The next leg of the recovery will be focused on services as restrictions are removed... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The global economic implications of chip shortages The global semiconductor shortage appears to be largely the result of a strong revival in demand for goods including consumer electronics rather than pandemic-related supply disruptions. It should... 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Inflation risks highest in the US While it is still early days, the ingredients for a sustained pick-up in inflation over the next few years seem to be falling into place in the US. It is a different picture in other developed... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued recovery in manufacturing February’s global manufacturing PMI survey painted a positive picture, implying that output growth has continued to accelerate outside China and that employment is picking up. Supply disruptions are... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The global implications of more US fiscal stimulus If passed in full, President Biden’s $1.9tn American Rescue Plan would constitute a fiscal stimulus worth 1.4% of global GDP, coming hot off the heels of the $900bn deal struck in December. While a... 24th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Mixed picture for pay pressures in major economies With vaccines improving the economic outlook and labour market data surprising to the upside, we have revised down our unemployment forecasts for almost all major economies. But wider measures of... 23rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show supply disruptions are pushing up prices The batch of flash PMIs for February suggest that shipping constraints and some goods shortages are raising costs for manufacturers. There are some signs that these cost pressures are being passed on... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics The implications of sustained travel restrictions Taken alone, prolonged restrictions on international travel would do little to hinder the global recovery since overseas tourism is a small share of world GDP and some of the lost spending would be... 18th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor While new COVID-19 infections have dropped, our Mobility Trackers have shown only a slight pick-up in activity as tight restrictions remain in place in many economies. Vaccine rollouts have been slow... 18th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Corporate savings pose another upside risk When analysing the effect of COVID-19 on business balance sheets, most attention is given to the surge in debt. But this ignores the fact that non-financial firms in DMs have built up a pile of excess... 10th February 2021 · 6 mins read
