Global Economics Update PMIs show resilience in industry & US economy so far As expected, today’s batch of flash PMIs confirmed that manufacturing has fared better than services in the face of the renewed virus wave. The strength of the US surveys was surprising and indicates... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Strong housing markets give recoveries a helping hand A striking development in the past few months is how well housing markets in developed markets have generally been doing. We expect this to peter out next year, although in most cases house price... 19th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How will vaccines be distributed? The news about effective vaccines has improved the global economic outlook and we think that most restrictions on activity in advanced economies will be removed by around Q2 next year. But... 17th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Economies after COVID The COVID pandemic will leave a profound economic legacy. But unlike previous crises, this will not necessarily manifest itself in much weaker rates of long-term economic growth. Instead, the economic... 17th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of job retention schemes Recent extensions to job retention schemes and hopes of a vaccine appear to have improved the outlook for labour markets. But there is still a risk that governments scale back support too quickly and... 16th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: Second waves take their toll Mobility data up to 8 th November suggest that the recovery in developed and emerging Europe has already gone into reverse and that recoveries in other parts of the world are losing steam. 13th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Vaccine improves economic outlook… with caveats A vaccine with a 90% efficacy rate would clearly represent a major boost for both public health and the economy. While there remain issues around the likely speed of production and distribution of the... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Six months on: how useful are mobility data? High-frequency mobility data have their flaws but have offered some guide to how economies have responded to government restrictions. As Europe enters a fresh set of lockdowns, careful interpretation... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The global implications of the US election result While the US election has dominated the news cycle across the world, the outcome is unlikely to have a significant impact on the world economy. Short-term global prospects will continue to be... 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from lockdown 1 for lockdown 2 Lockdowns in Q2 this year caused global GDP to drop by 7% q/q, with the hospitality, recreation, and transport sectors suffering most. The hit from second lockdowns should be much smaller since... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs holding up well ahead of lockdowns Manufacturing PMIs generally held their ground in October, suggesting that the industrial recovery made further headway, despite a resurgence of infections taking hold in the US and Europe... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Indian banks: the world’s weakest link Out of all the banking sectors in major economies, India’s warrants the most concern. It came into the crisis in the worst shape, and the scale of damage to private balance sheets means it will be one... 29th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Wage pressures strongest in the US With headline labour market figures affected by the various government support schemes, survey measures may provide a better indication of the true amount of slack in the labour market. These suggest... 28th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Fiscal outlook favours US and China over Europe and India While the COVID crisis has prompted an unprecedented fiscal response worldwide, there have been major differences between economies. The US saw large and immediate support, which has already expired... 27th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update DM divergence widens October’s batch of flash PMIs supports our view that divergences have emerged in advanced economies, both between sectors and between countries. With Europe dealing with second waves of infections and... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New phase of the pandemic to hit Europe hardest While there has been some good news on virus numbers in India and Latin America, Europe and parts of the US are grappling with a big resurgence in infections. Restrictions have already been tightened... 19th October 2020 · 4 mins read
