Global Economics Update What to expect from elections in 2021 In this Update, we take stock of the key elections that are scheduled around the world in the coming year and discuss the implications for economic policy. While elections in advanced economies are... 1st February 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Earned incomes to make up for tapering state support We expect household incomes to rise in most countries this year as easing restrictions allow people to get back to work. The outlook for incomes is brightest in North America, particularly given the... 28th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: US outperformance a sign of things to come The flash PMIs for January suggest that the US economy shrugged off containment measures at the start of 2021, but that restrictions did indeed weigh on activity elsewhere in DMs. The surveys also... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Surge in shipping costs adds to near-term price pressure The surge in global shipping costs over the past six months is likely to be short-lived and several factors will dampen the full pass-through to consumer prices. Even so, it adds to a growing list of... 19th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers point to weak start to 2021 Our COVID Mobility Trackers indicate that activity weakened towards the end of Q4, and data up to mid-January suggest that it took another leg down at the start of 2021. With countries still in the... 18th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Energy price inflation to drive up headline rates Advanced economy headline inflation rates are set to jump by an average of nearly 2%-pts in the coming months as energy inflation picks up and, in some cases, the effects of last year’s temporary cuts... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to our upbeat view stem mainly from the virus Our GDP forecasts for this year sit some way above the rest of the market. The greatest risks to this upbeat view stem from unanticipated shifts in the virus and the fight against it, rather than the... 13th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The challenges facing rollouts of coronavirus vaccines The risks to vaccination programmes fall into three groups: procurement, deployment, and effectiveness. In the coming few months, deployment issues will be a key limiting factor in most countries... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update The global state of play Developments from the past two weeks reinforce the message that 2021 will be a year of two halves for the world In the near term, high/rising infections in most major economies mean that restrictions... 4th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update 2021: a year of recovery, catch-up and accommodation We expect 2021 to be a better year for the global economy than most envisage. GDP growth in many major economies will surprise on the upside, with those that suffered the sharpest downturns this year... 17th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Four points on December’s batch of flash PMIs December’s flash PMIs revealed that restrictions in the euro-zone and the UK continue to weigh on services activity and that advanced economy manufacturing is still faring well. Meanwhile, building... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will households spend the extra money they have saved? One of the biggest upside risks to our forecasts is that households spend the extra savings that they have accumulated during the past few months. If they do, North America and the UK look likely to... 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update DM banks able to withstand higher defaults next year In Q3, the balance sheets of developed market banks were in good shape and credit losses stayed ultra-low. Defaults are likely to rise as policy support recedes, but we think the banks are well-placed... 3rd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that industrial recovery is still robust in Q4 The global manufacturing PMI rose for the seventh consecutive month in November. Restrictions seem to have weighed on industry in parts of Europe, but nowhere near as much as in March and April. And... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update World forecasts revised up due to vaccine news While a difficult few months lie ahead for many economies, the news of effective vaccines has led us to revise up our world GDP growth forecast by 0.8%-pt and 0.5%-pt, to 6.8% and 4.6%, in 2021 and... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
