Global Economics Update Reflationary recovery races on Inflation indicators in the flash PMIs for June reached new record highs and supplier delivery times lengthened still further. However, outside the US at least, there are few signs that goods... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How much of the rise in inflation is due to ‘base effects’? Much of the rise in inflation in major advanced economies from February to May has reflected the fact that prices fell in the same period a year ago. That said, depending on how you measure it, around... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers show that global economic activity is benefitting from the removal of restrictions in advanced economies. Good progress with vaccinations suggests that this trend should continue... 17th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How concerning is the recent rise in inflation? A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update G7 tax deal encouraging sign for cooperation among DMs The direct implications of this weekend’s deal on global corporate taxation struck by G7 finance ministers will be limited. But the deal suggests that wealthy nations have found renewed determination... 7th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening? 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: supply is struggling to keep up with demand The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US pay pressures are the exception, not the norm While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are... 20th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How far will rising commodity prices boost inflation? We think that the broad-based rally in commodity prices will go into reverse later this year, so the upward pressure on inflation in advanced economies should be temporary. But there is a clear risk... 12th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers suggest that global economic activity has continued to pick up and this positive trend should continue as vaccination programmes gather pace and there is a more widespread... 10th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Monitoring inflation as economies open up In this Update, we outline the key data that will help us gauge the evolution of inflationary pressure in advanced economies as they open up. Pandemic-related distortions mean that it is particularly... 5th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show that cost pressures have intensified The rise in the global manufacturing PMI suggests that the strong recovery in industrial production continued in April, but supply constraints are continuing to push up prices around the world. While... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update A closer look at ‘excess’ household savings Income support and limits on spending had already led households in advanced economies to build up almost $3.5tn in extra cash by the end of 2020, equating to 7.6% of GDP. And the stockpile of these... 26th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs paint a positive picture with US streaking ahead The advanced economy flash PMIs for April painted a positive picture, albeit with recoveries in the US and UK seemingly far outpacing those in the euro-zone and Japan as restrictions were relaxed in... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Can we trust the business surveys? A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
