Global Economics Update PMIs point to further recovery, strong price pressures March’s advanced economy PMIs painted a positive picture, with headline indices typically now well into expansionary territory. Supply shortages are boosting prices and constraining output to some... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the recent rise in coronavirus infections and associated restrictions are weighing on activity in Latin America, emerging Europe and the euro-zone. In contrast... 23rd March 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Growth of goods spending to ease as services recover The recent pick-up in consumer spending in DMs has been characterised by a sharp rise in spending on goods. The next leg of the recovery will be focused on services as restrictions are removed... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The global economic implications of chip shortages The global semiconductor shortage appears to be largely the result of a strong revival in demand for goods including consumer electronics rather than pandemic-related supply disruptions. It should... 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Inflation risks highest in the US While it is still early days, the ingredients for a sustained pick-up in inflation over the next few years seem to be falling into place in the US. It is a different picture in other developed... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued recovery in manufacturing February’s global manufacturing PMI survey painted a positive picture, implying that output growth has continued to accelerate outside China and that employment is picking up. Supply disruptions are... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The global implications of more US fiscal stimulus If passed in full, President Biden’s $1.9tn American Rescue Plan would constitute a fiscal stimulus worth 1.4% of global GDP, coming hot off the heels of the $900bn deal struck in December. While a... 24th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Mixed picture for pay pressures in major economies With vaccines improving the economic outlook and labour market data surprising to the upside, we have revised down our unemployment forecasts for almost all major economies. But wider measures of... 23rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show supply disruptions are pushing up prices The batch of flash PMIs for February suggest that shipping constraints and some goods shortages are raising costs for manufacturers. There are some signs that these cost pressures are being passed on... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics The implications of sustained travel restrictions Taken alone, prolonged restrictions on international travel would do little to hinder the global recovery since overseas tourism is a small share of world GDP and some of the lost spending would be... 18th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor While new COVID-19 infections have dropped, our Mobility Trackers have shown only a slight pick-up in activity as tight restrictions remain in place in many economies. Vaccine rollouts have been slow... 18th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Corporate savings pose another upside risk When analysing the effect of COVID-19 on business balance sheets, most attention is given to the surge in debt. But this ignores the fact that non-financial firms in DMs have built up a pile of excess... 10th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How supportive will fiscal policy be this year? One threat to economic recoveries this year is that governments withdraw their generous fiscal support too quickly. So far, that threat does not seem to be an imminent one. That said, the level of... 9th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilience of business services to cap falls in output Despite some dire public health situations, GDP outturns from the raft of recently released data have surprised on the upside in Q4. While some of the strength was due to industrial and construction... 3rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Four questions (answers) on r/Wallstreetbets The volatility caused by retail investors co-ordinated on the r/Wallstreetbets forum does not pose a direct threat to the global economy, but it does illustrate some of the financial vulnerabilities... 1st February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs provide first sign that external demand is faltering The global manufacturing PMI survey for January suggests that the industrial recovery lost a bit of steam at the start of the year. It also provided some evidence that, in addition to lengthening... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
