Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Only a small Omicron hit to industry so far While there is still time for Omicron waves to hit global supply chains, the manufacturing PMIs suggest that there has been limited disruption for now, especially outside China and the US. That said... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Omicron hit worse in the US than other DMs The Flash PMIs for January suggest that Omicron has dealt a big blow to both industry and services sectors in the US in recent weeks, while other DMs have got off more lightly. But with new cases... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What if energy prices keep rising? While ongoing supply shortages have led us to revise up our forecasts for crude oil and wholesale gas prices, we still expect significant falls this year which would reduce headline inflation in major... 20th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on Omicron’s economic effects While it is very uncertain, we estimate that disruption due to Omicron could knock around 1% off GDP in advanced economies while the outbreak is at its height, mainly due to staff absences. This would... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Global coronavirus cases have surged, and pressure is mounting on health systems as hospitalisations rise. Given that Omicron is milder than past variants, governments are typically leaning on booster... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Mfg. PMIs show signs of improvement pre-Omicron December’s manufacturing PMIs revealed that global industry rounded off 2021 on a positive note, with output growth picking up and price pressures easing as supply problems improved. But the PMIs gave... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The World in 2022 We expect growth in almost every major economy to slow next year, with the US and China in particular falling some way short of current expectations. At the same time, while headline inflation will... 17th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Virus hits services; further signs of shortages easing The Flash PMIs for December suggests that activity is slowing across advanced economies, as new virus waves and the emergence of the Omicron variant have already started to weigh on activity in the... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update There’s room for more fiscal support if needed Concerns about the new Omicron variant raise the question of whether there is scope for policy to be as supportive during a new wave of the virus as it has been so far in the pandemic. Significant... 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Coronavirus fears have resurged, with some restrictions being reimposed in Europe. So far, the hit to activity seems fairly modest, but it will be enough to see economic recoveries in the euro-zone... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show some signs of supply shortages easing November’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production has continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year. There are tentative signs that supply disruptions may... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Renewed restrictions: inflationary or disinflationary? If Omicron turns out to be malign enough to prompt tighter restrictions, we suspect that the net result would initially be for inflation to be lower than otherwise. But by worsening product and... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update First thoughts on Omicron It goes without saying that it’s still too early to say exactly how big a threat the new Omicron variant poses to the global economy. We’ll have more to say as the picture becomes clearer, but in the... 26th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Shortages exert further upward pressure on prices The Flash PMIs for November showed that although there are tentative signs that supply shortages are easing slightly, labour and product shortages are still weighing on recoveries in advanced... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
