Global Economics Update A summer catch-up The data released over the northern hemisphere summer break have suggested that economic recoveries in most countries have started to lose some steam. At the same time, while inflation is generally... 2nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show supply shortages still limiting growth August’s global manufacturing PMIs brought more evidence of a slowdown in the sector. Growth was always going to fall back as activity approached more normal levels, but supply shortages are also... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show growth and inflation easing a touch The flash PMIs for August confirm that growth in developed economies is slowing from a strong pace. This normalisation was always to be expected after the rapid post-pandemic revival, but the renewed... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will rents push up consumer price inflation? Most attention has been concentrated on the transient drivers of higher inflation, but a more sustainable pick-up in rent inflation is also underway in the US. This Update recaps how rents are treated... 17th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the Delta variant has had limited impact on economic activity outside parts of Asia. The risk of stricter containment measures will continue to be greater in much of... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How best to gauge underlying pay pressure If labour earnings growth took a decisive leg up, this would force central banks to rethink how long this year’s bout of higher inflation in advanced economies will last. The challenge is that the... 4th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Global PMIs flattening off at high levels The main takeaway from today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs is that industrial output growth looks to have peaked. Output indices have generally stopped rising, and new orders indices have come off the... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Limited signs of price pressures fading in the PMIs The overarching message from today’s batch of flash PMIs was that higher inflation isn’t going away anytime soon in major advanced economies. Some of the inflation indicators edged away from their... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Five lessons from reopening so far In this Update we identify five things that we have learned from reopening so far. Some we anticipated, including the rapid rebound in activity once restrictions were removed and an easing of trade... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Delta variant is a much bigger threat to EMs than DMs The apparent success of vaccines at preventing severe illness and death from the Delta coronavirus variant should mean that it does not pose a major threat to recoveries in most advanced economies... 14th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show industrial revival boosting prices further The dip in the global manufacturing PMI in June left it at a very high level, with the advanced economies leading a continued strong recovery in output. But industrial recoveries seem to have lost... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Reflationary recovery races on Inflation indicators in the flash PMIs for June reached new record highs and supplier delivery times lengthened still further. However, outside the US at least, there are few signs that goods... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How much of the rise in inflation is due to ‘base effects’? Much of the rise in inflation in major advanced economies from February to May has reflected the fact that prices fell in the same period a year ago. That said, depending on how you measure it, around... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers show that global economic activity is benefitting from the removal of restrictions in advanced economies. Good progress with vaccinations suggests that this trend should continue... 17th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How concerning is the recent rise in inflation? A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
