Global Economics Update “Excess” household savings could yet boost spending With household saving rates still elevated in most developed economies, “excess savings” have continued to rise. If people were to run down these savings, this would breathe new life into consumer... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Best of the recovery now in the rear-view mirror The raft of Q3 data that have been released so far have been the proverbial mixed bag with some countries (g. France) reporting surprisingly strong growth and others (e.g. the US) surprising on the... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Still no sign of supply problems letting up The October manufacturing PMIs gave us more of the same – evidence that supply disruptions are getting worse, industrial output growth is weakening, and price pressures are intensifying. This fits... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Services left to do the heavy lifting The flash PMIs for October brought news of an encouraging start to Q4 for services sector activity, alongside yet more evidence that shortages are holding back growth in industry and stoking even... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices won’t stop inflation falling next year The recent upward revision to our oil price forecast does little to alter our view that inflation will fall in 2022. Even if oil prices don’t fall as we expect them to and they stay at their current... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the pandemic permanently reduced the workforce? The pandemic is still depressing the size of the labour force in many developed countries. This probably reflects a mixture of temporary and permanent factors, so some of it may yet be reversed. But... 19th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Indeed Job Postings point to shortages intensifying We think that Indeed job data are useful and timely indicators of labour demand, and we will continue to monitor them in the months ahead. The latest data support the view that labour shortages are... 18th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Economies after COVID: one year on It is a year since we published our “Economies after COVID” series, so now seems like a good time to pause and take stock of how our predictions about the legacy of the pandemic are shaping up. There... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More signs of supply crimping industrial recovery The key message from today’s batch of PMIs for September is that supply constraints are still limiting growth in industry, and there is little to suggest they will ease materially any time soon. So... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the rise in house prices becoming a concern? It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the... 28th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show growth easing and inflation pressures rising The flash PMIs for September show that the pace of growth slowed across developed economies towards the end of Q3, suggesting that the boost to activity from reopening is fading. But inflationary... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Surge in gas prices adds to near term price pressure In this Update, we answer six key questions about the surge in natural gas prices. The key point is that it will keep inflation in DMs and many EMs above central bank targets for a few months longer... 21st September 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Sky-high shipping costs pose upside risk to inflation Our inflation forecasts already incorporate some passthrough of pipeline pressures including higher shipping costs to consumer prices. But given that maritime shipping costs have never surged anywhere... 14th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The effects of supply shortages Supply shortages may continue to limit growth and put upward pressure on prices for several months to come before a new wave of COVID infections is brought under control, economies reopen, and... 9th September 2021 · 4 mins read
