Global Economics Update World GDP forecast revised down due to Ukraine war Since the onset of war in Ukraine, we have revised down our forecast for world GDP growth in 2022 from 4.0% to 3.2%. Outside Russia and Ukraine, our biggest downward revisions have been to other... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s export hubs in worst outbreak since Wuhan Half of China’s exports are produced in areas that are now experiencing COVID outbreaks and three quarters of its exports are shipped from them. It is still possible that infections can be suppressed... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks likely to push ahead with monetary tightening The latest surge in global commodity prices has intensified the dilemma facing the world’s major central banks: on the one hand it will push headline inflation (and inflation expectations) even higher... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial contagion and known unknowns The rest of the world’s direct financial exposure to Russia has fallen in recent years and, in aggregate, is now small. This limits the risk of financial contagion from the collapse in Russia’s... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry rebounds from Omicron, but risks ahead The latest manufacturing PMIs add further evidence that the hit to industrial activity from Omicron was limited and should be short-lived. Although supply chain issues and price pressures no longer... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economy to weather conflict, but risks around supply The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has increased the risks posed to the global economy, but we still expect the broader effects to be relatively contained given limited trade and financial... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to strain on central banks The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show activity rebounding from Omicron hit February’s Flash PMIs support our earlier assertion that activity in developed economies would recover quickly from disruption related to Omicron. There is also tentative evidence that supply... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor The Omicron hit to activity has been small compared to past waves and should prove short-lived now that cases are falling in all regions. In fact, high-frequency data suggest that activity has already... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect from QT Quantitative tightening (QT), namely the shrinking of central banks’ balance sheets, is likely to play an active role alongside rising interest rates in the tightening of monetary policy over the... 15th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
