Global Economics Update Private sector well placed for higher rates in major DMs In addition to revealing that higher interest rates had barely affected household and corporate finances, national accounts data for Q1 suggested that, with the exception of households in a handful of... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What recessions mean for the labour market Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft... 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak industrial activity taking pressure off supply July’s fall in the global manufacturing PMI supported other evidence that the industrial sector is in or close to recession and the forward-looking indicators point to further weakness to come. At... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions... 28th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The natural gas crisis and the global economy The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view... 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Recessions knocking at the door Another month, another set of downbeat PMIs for advanced economies. The demand indicators weakened markedly in the US and the euro-zone for the second month in a row, crossing over into recessionary... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Sri Lanka We held a Drop-In earlier today to discuss recent developments in Sri Lanka, where the economic and political crisis is going from bad to worse. This Update answers several of the questions that we... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What rate of wage growth is acceptable for central banks? Even though workers are accepting cuts in their real pay, nominal wage growth is still above “acceptable” rates for central banks in DMs of 3% to 4%. This underlines why interest rates need to head... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to marked easing of goods price pressures Policymakers will have breathed a small sigh of relief at the latest manufacturing PMI surveys because they contained lots of signals that global goods price inflation will ease later this year... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Strength of goods spending still boosting inflation The consumer recovery in advanced economies has been characterised by particularly strong spending on goods and a weaker pick-up in services demand. There are signs that goods spending is now... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest marked slowdown underway in DMs Having held up better than much of the data in recent months, the S&P Global PMIs have finally taken a considerable leg-down in the US and euro-zone. While the PMIs are still consistent with economic... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Scope for labour supply to improve There is still scope for an improvement in labour supply in the US, UK and euro-zone, which might over time alleviate some of the tightness in their labour markets. But it could yet take a long time... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions on a momentous week in central banking We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss recent developments in central banking and related financial market implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update House price falls loom Housing markets are now showing signs of starting to weaken. While the consensus is that house price inflation will merely slow, we expect outright prices to fall in several of the most vulnerable... 13th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Demand weakening but supply improving slightly The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial activity weakened a touch in May. But while the forward-looking components of the surveys imply that weaker demand will weigh on output in the... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
