Global Economics Update Food inflation to ease from high rates The sharp rise in agricultural commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine has boosted food inflation to a multi-decade high, adding 0.6%-pts to average inflation in advanced economies compared... 11th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation chipping away at public debt ratios One benefit of the current rise in inflation, at least for governments, is that it is eroding the real value of public sector debt. But this will reverse only a small part of the pandemic-related rise... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions on the global economic outlook We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss our Q2 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers several of the excellent questions that we... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Activity weakening as price pressures strengthen The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that activity got off to a weaker start in Q2, as lockdowns in China led to a sharp fall in activity there. Forward-looking components of the surveys – including... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Activity holding up, but price pressures still rising The Flash PMIs for April suggest that activity in advanced economies generally held up better than expected at the start of Q2, despite worries of a large hit to industry from lockdowns in China and... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Pandemic savings won’t prevent slowdown in spending Households and corporates in advanced economies amassed savings during the pandemic which could feasibly be used to support consumption and investment in the current environment of rising costs. But... 21st April 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Enduring supply-chain woes risk stoking higher inflation Although China’s Omicron wave means that its economy is facing its sharpest slowdown since early 2020, so far it looks like disruptions to global supply chains will be milder than those experienced... 7th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More shortages and higher inflation incoming The latest manufacturing PMIs suggested that the Ukraine war and Chinese lockdowns have so far had a fairly modest impact on output in the rest of world. However, they showed that firms expect the... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: growth resilient for now as price pressures mount The Flash PMIs for March suggest that there has been little impact on growth in advanced economies from the war in Ukraine so far, but there are some warning signs for the future. Supply shortages are... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tighter financial conditions point to sluggish growth Our proprietary Financial Conditions Indices suggest that global financial conditions have recently been as tight as they were during the China hard landing fears of 2015 and point to GDP growth... 23rd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The dollar won’t be toppled Claims that the war in Ukraine will prove to be a watershed moment that ends the dollar’s position at the heart of the global financial system are wide of the mark. It could accelerate the development... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Back to the 1970s? While the parallels with the 1970s have been building, we remain unlikely to see the scale of stagflation witnessed back then. The main difference now is the apparent determination of central banks to... 22nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update World GDP forecast revised down due to Ukraine war Since the onset of war in Ukraine, we have revised down our forecast for world GDP growth in 2022 from 4.0% to 3.2%. Outside Russia and Ukraine, our biggest downward revisions have been to other... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s export hubs in worst outbreak since Wuhan Half of China’s exports are produced in areas that are now experiencing COVID outbreaks and three quarters of its exports are shipped from them. It is still possible that infections can be suppressed... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks likely to push ahead with monetary tightening The latest surge in global commodity prices has intensified the dilemma facing the world’s major central banks: on the one hand it will push headline inflation (and inflation expectations) even higher... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
