Global Economics Update The natural gas crisis and the global economy The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view... 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Recessions knocking at the door Another month, another set of downbeat PMIs for advanced economies. The demand indicators weakened markedly in the US and the euro-zone for the second month in a row, crossing over into recessionary... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Sri Lanka We held a Drop-In earlier today to discuss recent developments in Sri Lanka, where the economic and political crisis is going from bad to worse. This Update answers several of the questions that we... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What rate of wage growth is acceptable for central banks? Even though workers are accepting cuts in their real pay, nominal wage growth is still above “acceptable” rates for central banks in DMs of 3% to 4%. This underlines why interest rates need to head... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to marked easing of goods price pressures Policymakers will have breathed a small sigh of relief at the latest manufacturing PMI surveys because they contained lots of signals that global goods price inflation will ease later this year... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Strength of goods spending still boosting inflation The consumer recovery in advanced economies has been characterised by particularly strong spending on goods and a weaker pick-up in services demand. There are signs that goods spending is now... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest marked slowdown underway in DMs Having held up better than much of the data in recent months, the S&P Global PMIs have finally taken a considerable leg-down in the US and euro-zone. While the PMIs are still consistent with economic... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Scope for labour supply to improve There is still scope for an improvement in labour supply in the US, UK and euro-zone, which might over time alleviate some of the tightness in their labour markets. But it could yet take a long time... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions on a momentous week in central banking We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss recent developments in central banking and related financial market implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update House price falls loom Housing markets are now showing signs of starting to weaken. While the consensus is that house price inflation will merely slow, we expect outright prices to fall in several of the most vulnerable... 13th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Demand weakening but supply improving slightly The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial activity weakened a touch in May. But while the forward-looking components of the surveys imply that weaker demand will weigh on output in the... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update UK lagging behind in labour supply recovery It remains a mixed picture when it comes to how well the labour force is recovering in the wake of the pandemic. The recent improvement in some countries supports our view that much of the pandemic... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Equity price falls add to headwinds to growth Recent falls in equity prices have not prompted downgrades to our global growth forecasts since the passthrough to the real economy is limited and part of the bad news has already been factored in to... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Orders slowing and price pressures still acute The flash PMIs for May suggest that activity slowed in most DMs compared to April, and weaker growth in new orders points to a further slowdown to come. There were some positive developments on the... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Can we trust the PMIs after their undue optimism in Q1? The PMI surveys gave an overly optimistic steer of GDP growth in advanced economies in Q1. This partly reflected volatility in imports and inventories and the effects of COVID restrictions, all of... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Weakening economy will not do central banks’ job for them The cost of living squeeze will push net energy importers including the euro-zone and UK close to, or into, recession. While this will have some disinflationary effects in the medium-term, we doubt... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
