Global Economics Update The impacts of a strong dollar on the global economy The dollar’s appreciation is bad news for the global economy, as it will weigh further on demand for traded goods and add to global inflationary pressures. It is another reason why we expect the... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the world weather China’s troubles? China’s economy has essentially stalled. This does not mean that aggregate growth in the rest of the world will automatically slow, but there will be winners and losers at a country level. In view of... 11th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Bigger house price falls loom One result of the rise in near-term interest rate expectations is a deterioration in the outlook for global housing markets. We already expected house price falls in a handful of countries. Now those... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update RBA’s dovish tilt unlikely to be replicated elsewhere With price pressures still strong, the looming global recession is unlikely to derail central banks’ tightening plans in the months ahead. While the RBA quoted the deteriorating global outlook when it... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing downturn to deepen in Q4 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry has already weakened significantly and is set to perform worse in the coming months as high inflation and rising interest rates take their... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update European households’ costs to soar despite fiscal aid The sharp increases in gas and electricity prices in Europe mean that households there – particularly in Germany and Italy – will see a steep rise in their costs of energy consumption. Accordingly... 28th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Extra policy tightening to tip the world into recession It is now clear that central banks in advanced economies will raise interest rates even further than our above-consensus forecasts had implied, making the current tightening cycle the most aggressive... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks won’t flinch at weak PMIs Another month, another batch of PMIs pointing to Q3 GDP having fallen in major advanced economies. Yet despite the deterioration in real activity, as well as some further signs that pipeline price... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing PMI now in recession territory The fall in the global manufacturing PMI in August implies that global industrial activity is contracting, and the further decline in the new orders and export orders sub-components suggests that... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs fall further into recessionary territory August’s flash PMIs suggest that activity has weakened considerably, and, at face value, suggest that both the US and euro-zone have fallen into recession. What’s more, the forward-looking components... 23rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Private sector well placed for higher rates in major DMs In addition to revealing that higher interest rates had barely affected household and corporate finances, national accounts data for Q1 suggested that, with the exception of households in a handful of... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What recessions mean for the labour market Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft... 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak industrial activity taking pressure off supply July’s fall in the global manufacturing PMI supported other evidence that the industrial sector is in or close to recession and the forward-looking indicators point to further weakness to come. At... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions... 28th July 2022 · 5 mins read
