Global Economics Update PMIs show strong service sector activity driving growth May’s PMIs suggest that activity in advanced economies has continued to hold up well amid a strong rebound in the service sector. Meanwhile, weak demand for manufactured goods is weighing heavily on... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Strong auto sector rebound probably largely in the past The rebound in global auto production and sales over the past year has been partly responsible for the better-than-expected activity data over the past several months. And with auto sales in most... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update QT effects dwarfed by influence of past rate hikes Any impact of QT has so far been modest and swamped by the effects of higher policy rates. Asset disposals might put some upward pressure on yields in the euro-zone in the near term, but the process... 18th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update When will interest rates start to fall? Inflation is now on a downward trend and interest rates are at, or very close to, a peak. But central banks will only cut interest rates once there are clearer signs that underlying price pressures... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Stabilisation in housing markets likely to be temporary The downturn in the housing market appears to have paused in many countries in recent weeks. However, we doubt that this marks the bottom of the market. With higher interest rates yet to take their... 15th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Exports set to rebound in March, but outlook still bleak While world trade fell further in February, the available data point to a rise in March, especially due to a strong rebound in China. But that rebound looks to have already reversed in April. And with... 9th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we... 9th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is food inflation finally about to turn a corner? While food CPI inflation remains very high in all major advanced economies – and especially so in Europe – we expect it to fall sharply in the coming year. Energy and labour costs have been key in... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q1 GDP data Available data for Q1 suggest that the global economy had a better start to the year than previously feared. That seems to have reflected the post zero-COVID rebound in China and its effects, a boost... 3rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs still pointing to robust GDP growth Once again the PMIs suggest that real activity in advanced economies continues to shrug off the effects of higher interest rates. According to the flash PMIs, GDP and employment growth both got off to... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about our new FCIs We held an online Drop-In yesterday to present our new financial conditions indices and discuss how conditions have evolved in the wake of SVB’s collapse. (See a recording here). This Update addresses... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs: weaker activity and inflation The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity was broadly flat in Q1, and confirm that the post-COVID rebound in China was concentrated in the service sector. The upside is... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest DMs avoided recession in Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that not only did advanced economies avoid recession in Q1, but the outlook for activity has improved as well. However, we still think the hit from higher interest... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Banking stress raises another dilemma for central banks We are resending this Stress Monitor to include clients of our Global Economics Service. The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened... 16th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update How could the situation escalate? We are resending this publication to include clients of our Property Services. We have already outlined some different scenarios of how things might evolve from here and it is still possible that the... 16th March 2023 · 4 mins read
