Global Economics Update Digesting the upside surprises to food inflation While food inflation has surprised to the upside in major DMs, it seems to be at or near a peak. We expect a combination of base effects and an easing of underlying price pressures to drag on food... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show industrial downturn easing supply shortages The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production is contracting, albeit with some signs of a slowdown in the pace of contraction in Europe. Product shortages have diminished... 1st December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s COVID outbreak: your questions answered We hosted an online Drop-In yesterday to discuss China’s COVID outbreak and its domestic and global implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Plunging shipping costs to weigh on inflation Over a year ago, we warned that surging shipping costs posed an upside risk to inflation going into 2022, and it looks like these risks did indeed materialise. But now that global shipping costs have... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued downturn and easing inflation November’s flash PMIs were a mixed bag, with unexpected increases in Europe and a sharp fall in the US. However, the headline indices are now at levels consistent with falling activity in all major... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient monthly data do not change gloomy outlook Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations. This is partly due to an easing of supply shortages, which could offer some further support to... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update October CPI: US/Europe contrast to endure in 2023 The October inflation data highlighted a contrast between the US and Europe, with core price pressures easing materially in the US but staying stronger in the euro-zone and UK. We think this will be... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Baby steps at G20 as fracturing theme dominates This week’s G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, has so far exceeded low expectations. There is broad condemnation of the war in Ukraine and bilateral talks between China and the US seem to have been... 15th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Weak demand starting to weigh on bank lending Although credit growth in advanced economies remained strong in September, it has largely been used to help economies cope with the effects from rising costs and inflation. But lending criteria is now... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the coming recession compare to the past? The impending global recession will see sluggish growth or outright contractions in GDP in most major economies, with Europe faring the worst. Accounting for changes in trend growth over time, we... 7th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand to weigh further on manufacturing The latest manufacturing PMIs are consistent with a significant downturn in global industry. As higher interest rates take a further toll on demand, shortages should continue to alleviate, helping to... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest downturns set to worsen October’s flash PMIs provided further evidence that several of the major advanced economies are heading into recessions. The surveys suggest that activity was already contracting at the start of Q4... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Are we sliding towards fiscal dominance? Strictly speaking, recent measures by the Bank of England do not qualify as so-called “fiscal dominance”. But this could be the thin end of the wedge, and not just for the UK. While we are a long way... 13th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The impacts of a strong dollar on the global economy The dollar’s appreciation is bad news for the global economy, as it will weigh further on demand for traded goods and add to global inflationary pressures. It is another reason why we expect the... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
