Global Economics Update Five key themes in world trade In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is... 19th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update The differences for China in Harris versus Trump A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and... 12th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the manufacturing sector signalling recession? While the risks of a more severe downturn in industry have increased in advanced economies, we still expect manufacturing output to slow rather than crash in the coming months. Even if output were to... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to further weakness in global industry The latest PMIs suggest that the outlook for global industry remains bleak, particularly in advanced economies. And although price pressures seem to have increased, we doubt that this marks the... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Green tech and chips will remain key battlegrounds Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic... 3rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs hint at slower growth and inflation ahead The latest flash PMIs suggest that strong activity in the service sector has continued to support GDP growth in advanced economies in Q3, but that the outlook has worsened somewhat. Meanwhile... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Jackson Hole unlikely to bring more clarity Central bankers are unlikely to offer much forward guidance at this weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, preferring to stress their “data dependence”. Since most economies are expanding, inflation is... 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Shipping costs still elevated, but no longer rising Container shipping costs have fallen back slightly in the past few weeks. And while the potential for further shipping disruptions makes the outlook for shipping costs highly uncertain, as things... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still loosening in most DMs Market turmoil has not yet led to a tightening of financial conditions in the US and most other advanced economies. That’s because borrowing costs have fallen sharply as investors have grown to expect... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity slowed sharply at the start of Q3, and that activity will probably slow further. But weaker activity hasn’t taken the heat out of... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs offer some hope of easing services price pressures The latest flash PMIs suggest that while GDP growth probably slowed in Europe at the start of Q3, it continued to recover in Japan. Although the rise in shipping costs has caused manufacturers’ input... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response First thoughts on the global IT outage The global IT outages affecting Windows software are causing huge temporary disruption to certain sectors including travel and healthcare, but while things are still very uncertain we do not... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
