Global Economics Update How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs? The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating... 20th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Which sectors will benefit most from AI? Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. 19th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Global Economics Update PMIs still paint a bleak picture for global industry While the latest PMIs suggest that global industry started Q4 on a slightly better footing, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains poor, especially in advanced economies. Meanwhile, although... 4th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Where will interest rates trough and why? We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro & market implications of the US election We held online Drop-In sessions with clients this week to discuss how we factor the US election into our thinking on the macro and market outlook for the US and other parts of the world. This Update... 24th October 2024 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger... 16th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update US continues to lead the way on our AI index A year ago, we developed our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the benefits of AI. We have updated that index, and the big picture... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider... 2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs signal marked slowdown in global industry In addition to indicating that goods price pressures eased in September, the latest batch of manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry slowed sharply towards the end of Q3. But with interest... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own... 30th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Don’t lose hope of AI’s economic potential This summer’s falls in the share prices of companies involved in producing AI chips have prompted some to question whether the AI revolution will be quite the game-changer it has been built up to be... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Port strike won’t rock the boat The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports is unlikely to trigger major economic disruption. Many retailers have made plans in anticipation of the strike and our sense is that, this close to the election... 25th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slower growth and inflation The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth slowed in advanced economies at the end of Q3, particularly in the euro-zone. Meanwhile, weaker activity seems to be weighing on services price pressures... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect as the loosening cycle really kicks off We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the likely pace and extent of interest rate cuts and their implications now that the US Fed has joined the party. (See a recording here.) This... 23rd September 2024 · 8 mins read
