FX Markets Update Answering your questions on currencies We held a Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss the growing turbulence in FX markets and our views on the major currencies. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several... 29th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Fiscal credibility key for Gilts & sterling Although the latest sell-off in Gilts has been driven in part by expectations for higher interest rates, the accompanying fall in sterling suggests the risk premia attached to UK assets has risen. In... 27th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response FX intervention aims to put a ceiling on USD/JPY 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What would a policy shift do for China’s markets? The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the yen to reverse course before long We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind. 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the energy price cap for UK markets Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. In... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Are markets really braced for further volatility? Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update A lot more pain to come for European currencies Despite their precipitous fall against the dollar this year and last, we think the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies will weaken further over the next twelve month as the economic... 31st August 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update REERs suggests need for further adjustment in some EMs While EM real effective exchange rates have held up better than their nominal exchange rates against the dollar since 2021, we think there are some economies where appreciations look stretched, and... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect real yields to remain a drag on European currencies A shift in implied real yield gaps between the US and some other developed markets (DMs) have underpinned the latest rise in the greenback. We think the ongoing energy crisis in Europe means that... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the risks to vulnerable EM FX Despite the broad-based rebound over the past month or so, we expect deteriorating risk sentiment to put renewed pressure on most emerging market (EM) currencies before long. This Update zeroes in on... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics We doubt the Canadian dollar’s resilience will last much longer The Canadian dollar has held up relatively well against the US dollar so far in 2022, but we think the factors underpinning the loonie’s resilience will fade and push it lower against the greenback... 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we don’t think the dollar has peaked yet Although we think the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle is drawing nearer and that yields of long-term US Treasuries have already peaked for this cycle, we don’t believe this necessarily spells the end of... 11th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Answers to your questions on global markets We held a Drop In yesterday outlining our latest forecasts for global financial markets. This Update answers some questions that we received during that Drop In but didn’t have time to address. In... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
