FX Markets Update What a “soft landing” in the US might mean for the greenback Given that US economic outperformance has tended to coincide with a stronger dollar, we suspect a “soft landing” in the US economy would provide a favourable backdrop for the greenback, if it also... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect China’s “reopening trade” to resume Some of the moves in China’s financial markets that followed its rapid reopening – including a rise in equity prices, higher bond yields and stronger renminbi – have unwound in the past couple of... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high-beta DM currencies face near-term headwinds We expect “high-beta” developed market currencies to weaken against the dollar over the coming months as risk sentiment worsens and, in some cases, yield gaps move against them. But we anticipate a... 9th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We have our doubts about the soft-landing rally Despite some better news recently, we still think that advanced economies face a tough couple of quarters, an outturn which does not seem to be fully discounted in financial markets. With this in mind... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think FX market volatility will edge higher from here Tension across financial markets has come down significantly since November, contributing to the US dollar’s broad-based weakness in that period. Ahead of key central bank meetings this week, this... 1st February 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the US dollar With inflationary pressures easing and the global growth outlook improving, we no longer expect the US dollar to breach its late September peak. But we still think that souring risk appetite... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Stronger yen still on the cards despite the BoJ’s obstinance While the Bank of Japan pushed back against expectations that it would end its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy yesterday, we think it is only a matter of time before YCC bites the dust. That suggests... 19th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update China’s re-opening and currency markets While the medium-term outlook for the renminbi and other Asian currencies has improved, and we have revised some of our forecasts accordingly, we continue to anticipate that a deterioration in risk... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the Hong Kong dollar Downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar has abated in recent weeks and we think it is very unlikely that the existing currency framework will be abandoned any time soon. In view of the wider... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Assessing the fall-out from the change to the BoJ’s YCC The surge in government bond yields around the world in response to today’s decision by the Bank of Japan to tweak its policy of Yield Curve Control highlights the risks to international markets posed... 20th December 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update BoJ’s YCC shift points to stronger yen The Bank of Japan’s unexpected decision to alter its yield curve control (YCC) policy has led to a surge in the yen today; we now expect the USD/JPY rate to drop further, reaching 125 by end-2023. In... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The World in 2023: What to look for in financial markets Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic debate in 2023 – falling inflation and future monetary policy loosening – are now largely priced into markets in the US. The... 15th December 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update What re-opening might mean for China’s markets We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields... 14th December 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the loonie to weaken further against the US dollar The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. In view of the wider... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update More reasons why we don’t think the dollar has peaked (yet) Although the rally in the US dollar has seen a significant reversal over recent weeks, indicators from past turning points in the greenback suggest to us that there remains scope for the dollar to... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the rand’s rally will prove short-lived Despite its strength this month, we think the headwinds facing the South African rand remain in place and expect it to reach fresh lows against the US dollar through the middle of next year. In view... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read