Global Markets Update BoJ normalisation points to higher JGB yields & stronger yen We think the Bank of Japan’s continued steps towards policy normalisation are consistent with somewhat higher JGB yields and a significant rebound in the yen over the coming quarters. In view of the... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Reassessing the link between commodity and FX markets While we think the cyclical forces that have weakened the relationship between commodity prices and “commodity currencies” will fade before long, we suspect some structural factors – namely the US’s... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The Chilean peso likely to break its spell of underperformance We think the Chilean peso is poised for a rebound in 2024 as the headwinds from the narrowing interest rate differential and the terms of trade deterioration reverse. 26th October 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of our US dollar forecast While the global backdrop continues to favour the US dollar, it's rally has stalled in recent weeks and we think that, absent a major deterioration in risk sentiment, the greenback will struggle to... 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the European G10 currencies With most European G10 central banks now at, or very close to, the ends of their tightening cycles, this note examines where the European G10 currencies stand and how we see the outlook for the main... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high carry currencies will reverse course Although high “carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have held on to most of their gains during the greenback’s recent rally, we still think the outperformance of these currencies is likely to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the renminbi, the yen & FX intervention While policymakers’ efforts to prop up the renminbi and the yen alone are not enough to generate a lasting turnaround, they will probably do enough to buy time until US interest rate expectations and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, and the dollar We’ve revised up our projections for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, but still expect both to fall a bit by the end of this year. We have also tweaked our forecast for the US dollar. 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Rate cuts by the BoC may push the loonie lower Although the Canadian dollar has held up relatively well among G10 currencies, we think it will weaken in the coming quarters as investors discount a more dovish policy path for the Bank of Canada. In... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD likely to remain under pressure The cyclically-sensitive antipodean currencies have had a tough year so far, and a fair bit of bad news already appears priced in to both the aussie and the kiwi. Nonetheless, we don’t think their... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We still expect Gilt yields and sterling to fall Gilt yields and sterling have fallen from their cycle highs over the past month or so, and we think the worsening economic growth outlook in the UK and elsewhere mean that this trend will continue... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies are likely to reverse their gains Exceptionally high inflation in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) relative to elsewhere has left their currencies overvalued against the US dollar and on a trade-weighted basis... 16th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Summer vibes across most markets, but will they last? Since our last Financial Market Stress Monitor on 13th May, strains have continued to ease. This abbreviated Stress Monitor takes stock of developments since then. Overall, stress across core... 10th August 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect SNB intervention to continue to buoy the franc The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
