FX Markets Update We think high carry currencies will reverse course Although high “carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have held on to most of their gains during the greenback’s recent rally, we still think the outperformance of these currencies is likely to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the renminbi, the yen & FX intervention While policymakers’ efforts to prop up the renminbi and the yen alone are not enough to generate a lasting turnaround, they will probably do enough to buy time until US interest rate expectations and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, and the dollar We’ve revised up our projections for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, but still expect both to fall a bit by the end of this year. We have also tweaked our forecast for the US dollar. 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Rate cuts by the BoC may push the loonie lower Although the Canadian dollar has held up relatively well among G10 currencies, we think it will weaken in the coming quarters as investors discount a more dovish policy path for the Bank of Canada. In... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD likely to remain under pressure The cyclically-sensitive antipodean currencies have had a tough year so far, and a fair bit of bad news already appears priced in to both the aussie and the kiwi. Nonetheless, we don’t think their... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We still expect Gilt yields and sterling to fall Gilt yields and sterling have fallen from their cycle highs over the past month or so, and we think the worsening economic growth outlook in the UK and elsewhere mean that this trend will continue... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies are likely to reverse their gains Exceptionally high inflation in the major economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) relative to elsewhere has left their currencies overvalued against the US dollar and on a trade-weighted basis... 16th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Summer vibes across most markets, but will they last? Since our last Financial Market Stress Monitor on 13th May, strains have continued to ease. This abbreviated Stress Monitor takes stock of developments since then. Overall, stress across core... 10th August 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect SNB intervention to continue to buoy the franc The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Three thoughts on the US credit rating downgrade The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision this week is more symbol than substance. But three key related points are worth highlighting. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update What the end of tightening cycles means for the US dollar As major central banks near the end of their tightening cycles, the latest evidence of US economic resilience suggests to us that the dollar is poised to appreciate over the next couple of quarters. 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Effective end of YCC adds to the case for a stronger yen The BoJ’s decision earlier today to, in effect, end its long-standing Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy means that long-term government bond yields in Japan will become more responsive to economic... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The Mexican “super peso” looks poised for a sharp fall The Mexican peso’s relentless rise against the US dollar and most other major currencies is increasingly at odds with macroeconomic fundamentals. We think the peso is vulnerable to an abrupt fall over... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of our forecast for a stronger dollar While recent data suggest the US in on a path towards disinflation and a less aggressive monetary policy stance from the Fed, we continue to think that the dollar will rebound in the second half of... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall Despite today’s big reaction in markets in the UK to better-than-expected inflation news, we still think investors are overestimating the peak in interest rates there and underestimating how much... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read