FX Markets Update How worried should we be about the renminbi & yen? We continue to think that policymakers in China and Japan will do enough to keep their currencies from weakening much further, but the risk of a break lower in one, or both, is increasing. 27th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Loonie to weaken further over the course of the year We still expect the Canadian dollar to depreciate against the US dollar as interest rate differentials relative to the US widen and Canada’s terms of trade worsen. 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Three key points on the yen’s latest fall In the wake of this week’s FOMC and BoJ policy announcements we are revising our forecast for the Japanese yen. While we still expect the Japanese yen to rebound over the course of 2024, we now... 21st March 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update A further rise in the US dollar looks unlikely to us The tailwinds that have underpinned the rebound in the dollar this year seem, to us, to have run their course. While we wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar stayed firm over the coming months, we still... 21st March 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Springtime across markets; too good to be true? The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external rebalancing: less than meets the eye The sharp narrowing in Colombia’s current account deficit last year to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis looks encouraging, but it was entirely a result of the... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Headwinds to EM FX may persist in the short term Almost all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, and we think they will remain under pressure until interest rate expectations in the US shift lower... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the yen looks overdone to us The rise in US bond yields has put renewed pressure on the yen, but we think further downside is limited. We still expect Treasury yields to resume their downward trend and for the yen to benefit most... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to use FX interventions more sparingly Chairman Thomas Jordan’s recent comments about the franc raise questions over whether the SNB might use FX interventions to loosen monetary conditions. But we think policymakers will use the policy... 13th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update What the “dollar smile” means in the Fed’s “last mile” While not our base case, continued strength in the US economy would probably be a tailwind for the US dollar over the coming months. But even in that event, we think the dollar would eventually weaken... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Australian and NZ dollars We don’t expect the Australian and New Zealand dollars – which have been two of the worst-performing G10 currencies this year – to fall much further. 2nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s markets to stay under pressure for long We project decent near-term gains in China’s equities, think long-dated CGB yields will finish the year around their current levels, and expect the renminbi to rally against the US dollar. In view of... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think sterling has further to fall against the US dollar While sterling has outperformed other G10 currencies amid the dollar sell-off over the past couple of months, we expect it to reverse its gains against the greenback as short-term Gilt yields edge... 16th January 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update LatAm currencies and equities may fare poorly this year We think that most major currencies in Latin American will fall against the US dollar this year. As a result, the relatively poor returns that we expect from equities in the region in local-currency... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of valuations in currency markets While we estimate the US dollar remains only somewhat above “fair value”, the valuations of some other major currencies are at extreme levels. For these currencies – notably the Mexican peso and Czech... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read