FX Markets Update Taking stock of the carry trade after the FOMC’s surprise While the shift towards rate hikes in several key emerging markets has provided a boost to their currencies, we doubt that the carry trade will fare as well in the second half of the year. 6th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weighing up the prospects for the NOK We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative... 1st July 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen will weaken further before long We expect the yen will continue to depreciate against the US dollar this year as 10-year US Treasury yields resume their rise. 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the FX market reaction to the FOMC The reaction to this week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that the US dollar will strengthen against most currencies this year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we remain bearish on the renminbi We continue to think that the renminbi will end the year weaker against the US dollar and, while not an essential factor in that forecast, the recent steps by China’s policymakers to weaken the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we still favour the US dollar over the euro Despite its recent resurgence, we continue to think that the euro will weaken against the dollar this year. 19th May 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Our top 10 calls on currency markets This Update sets out the main calls of our new FX service. As part of our expanded coverage of currency markets, we will maintain and continuously update this set of core predictions. Our first FX... 12th May 2021 · 4 mins read