Long Run Update Our views on the US dollar’s long-term prospects Although we forecast the greenback will rise further over the next year or two, we think that it will face growing headwinds over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we have made this FX... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX We expect rising UST yields to extend the dollar’s rally We expect further rises in US Treasury yields to support continued gains in the US dollar against most other developed market (DM) currencies, especially the yen and the Swiss franc. 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect commodity currencies to remain under pressure Although the currencies of most commodity exporters appear undervalued in the context of high commodity prices, we still think most commodity currencies will depreciate further against the US dollar. 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate a much stronger US dollar? We think that the upside risks to our US dollar view have increased. On a trade-weighted basis, we forecast a ~4% rise from its current level by the end of 2022; this Update considers what factors... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Forecast revisions & taking stock of our key calls We have revised down our forecasts for many of the G10 “high-beta” currencies and several currencies in EM Asia and LatAm. This update sets out the rationale behind those revisions and updates our key... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the dollar rally & why we think it will continue The US dollar has risen significantly since the June FOMC meeting, with another surge after today’s strong inflation data, and we think the greenback will make further headway in the second half of... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the carry trade after the FOMC’s surprise While the shift towards rate hikes in several key emerging markets has provided a boost to their currencies, we doubt that the carry trade will fare as well in the second half of the year. 6th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weighing up the prospects for the NOK We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative... 1st July 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen will weaken further before long We expect the yen will continue to depreciate against the US dollar this year as 10-year US Treasury yields resume their rise. 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the FX market reaction to the FOMC The reaction to this week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that the US dollar will strengthen against most currencies this year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we remain bearish on the renminbi We continue to think that the renminbi will end the year weaker against the US dollar and, while not an essential factor in that forecast, the recent steps by China’s policymakers to weaken the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we still favour the US dollar over the euro Despite its recent resurgence, we continue to think that the euro will weaken against the dollar this year. 19th May 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Our top 10 calls on currency markets This Update sets out the main calls of our new FX service. As part of our expanded coverage of currency markets, we will maintain and continuously update this set of core predictions. Our first FX... 12th May 2021 · 4 mins read
