Emerging Europe Economics Update Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has appreciated sharply in the past few weeks, making it one of the best performing currencies during the pandemic. While we don’t expect this recent strength to continue in the... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira sell-off and lessons from other “sudden stops” The fresh falls in the Turkish lira following the CBRT’s interest rate cut today have left Turkey firmly in crisis territory and echoes of previous “sudden stops” during major EM currency crises in... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Bond market volatility may be taste of things to come in FX We think that the recent pick-up in bond market volatility will persist and that volatility in currency markets will also rise further as uncertainty around the economic outlook and monetary policy... 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen remains vulnerable to rising US rates We expect the yen to weaken a bit more against the US dollar as we think that government bond yields in the US will resume their rise before long. 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to remain under pressure We think that the Brazilian real will weaken a bit further against the US dollar over the next year, as fiscal risks and deteriorating terms of trade continue to weigh on the currency. In view of the... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update High-beta G10 rally built on shaky foundations We think that the recent re-pricing of near-term interest rate expectations across most developed markets is overdone and that several of the “high-beta” G10 currencies will come under renewed... 26th October 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the rally in commodity currencies to be short-lived Although we wouldn’t be surprised if energy prices remained elevated for a while, we still think they will fall back over the next year, weighing on the currencies of net energy exporters. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update We think the Norwegian krone’s rally is nearing its end Although the krone has rallied this year on the back of high energy prices and the expectation of tighter monetary policy, we do not expect this to continue. We think slowing global growth and... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Slowing global growth may continue to help the US dollar We think that the ongoing slowdown in global economic growth points to continued dollar strength, which suggests to us that there is significant upside risk to our already-bullish dollar forecast. 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The curious case of the super-stable renminbi We think that the renminbi’s period of remarkable calm will end before long, and that it will depreciate against the US dollar over the next few months. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate... 16th September 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the Swedish krona to outperform the UK pound We think that the prospects for monetary tightening point to an appreciation of the Swedish krona relative to the UK pound over the next 6-18 months. 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
