FX Markets Update High-beta G10 rally built on shaky foundations We think that the recent re-pricing of near-term interest rate expectations across most developed markets is overdone and that several of the “high-beta” G10 currencies will come under renewed... 26th October 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the rally in commodity currencies to be short-lived Although we wouldn’t be surprised if energy prices remained elevated for a while, we still think they will fall back over the next year, weighing on the currencies of net energy exporters. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update We think the Norwegian krone’s rally is nearing its end Although the krone has rallied this year on the back of high energy prices and the expectation of tighter monetary policy, we do not expect this to continue. We think slowing global growth and... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Slowing global growth may continue to help the US dollar We think that the ongoing slowdown in global economic growth points to continued dollar strength, which suggests to us that there is significant upside risk to our already-bullish dollar forecast. 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The curious case of the super-stable renminbi We think that the renminbi’s period of remarkable calm will end before long, and that it will depreciate against the US dollar over the next few months. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate... 16th September 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the Swedish krona to outperform the UK pound We think that the prospects for monetary tightening point to an appreciation of the Swedish krona relative to the UK pound over the next 6-18 months. 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Our views on the US dollar’s long-term prospects Although we forecast the greenback will rise further over the next year or two, we think that it will face growing headwinds over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we have made this FX... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets We expect rising UST yields to extend the dollar’s rally We expect further rises in US Treasury yields to support continued gains in the US dollar against most other developed market (DM) currencies, especially the yen and the Swiss franc. 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect commodity currencies to remain under pressure Although the currencies of most commodity exporters appear undervalued in the context of high commodity prices, we still think most commodity currencies will depreciate further against the US dollar. 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate a much stronger US dollar? We think that the upside risks to our US dollar view have increased. On a trade-weighted basis, we forecast a ~4% rise from its current level by the end of 2022; this Update considers what factors... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Forecast revisions & taking stock of our key calls We have revised down our forecasts for many of the G10 “high-beta” currencies and several currencies in EM Asia and LatAm. This update sets out the rationale behind those revisions and updates our key... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the dollar rally & why we think it will continue The US dollar has risen significantly since the June FOMC meeting, with another surge after today’s strong inflation data, and we think the greenback will make further headway in the second half of... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read