FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies will weaken despite rate hikes We expect the major central and eastern European (CEE) currencies to depreciate against the euro this year. We think that the Czech koruna will continue to fare better than the other CEE currencies... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Why we still think the renminbi will weaken China’s currency was remarkably stable against the US dollar in 2021 and appreciated against other major currencies. But we doubt that trend will continue this year: a slowing economy, monetary policy... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Key financial market calls for 2022 We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the US dollar’s prospects in 2022 Although we wouldn’t be surprised if the rally in the US dollar paused in the short term, we still expect the relative strength of the economic recovery in the US and monetary tightening there to push... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key questions for currency markets in 2022 Four central themes in currency markets this year have been the US dollar’s steady grind higher since June, the underperformance of other safe-haven currencies, the remarkable stability of the USD/CNY... 20th December 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Untangling the effect of Omicron, the Fed, and China easing Three recent developments – the emergence of the Omicron variant, the Fed’s signal that it may further accelerate the pace of policy normalisation, and China’s move towards policy easing – have... 9th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update We anticipate that the rand will remain weak The South African rand has rallied over the past few days after reaching its lowest level against the US dollar in more than a year following last week’s news about the Omicron variant. Even if the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has appreciated sharply in the past few weeks, making it one of the best performing currencies during the pandemic. While we don’t expect this recent strength to continue in the... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira sell-off and lessons from other “sudden stops” The fresh falls in the Turkish lira following the CBRT’s interest rate cut today have left Turkey firmly in crisis territory and echoes of previous “sudden stops” during major EM currency crises in... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Bond market volatility may be taste of things to come in FX We think that the recent pick-up in bond market volatility will persist and that volatility in currency markets will also rise further as uncertainty around the economic outlook and monetary policy... 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen remains vulnerable to rising US rates We expect the yen to weaken a bit more against the US dollar as we think that government bond yields in the US will resume their rise before long. 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to remain under pressure We think that the Brazilian real will weaken a bit further against the US dollar over the next year, as fiscal risks and deteriorating terms of trade continue to weigh on the currency. In view of the... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read