Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for US markets We still expect a higher 10-year Treasury yield, lower S&P 500 and stronger US dollar over the remainder of the year, but have pared back our forecasts for the rise in yields and fall in equities. In... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics EM FX has a bit further to fall; some pockets of greater concern With global economic growth weakening and risk sentiment unlikely to rebound sustainably this year in our view, we think that EM currencies generally will remain under pressure over the next several... 26th July 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect “high-beta” DM currencies to fall further Despite their recent rebound, we still think that “high-beta” developed market currencies will weaken further against the US dollar for the remainder of the year. 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics We think the Mexican peso will fall further We expect the Mexican peso to fall further against the US dollar amid mounting external headwinds. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this FX Markets Update to clients of our Latin... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the dollar’s rally With the DXY index surging to a fresh 20-year high, the US dollar has reached our end-2022 forecasts against several of the other major currencies. While we are sticking to our current forecasts for... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate an even stronger US dollar? We forecast a further ~2% appreciation of the trade-weighted US dollar over the rest of this year. But we continue to think that the risks are skewed towards even greater dollar strength. This Update... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Upheaval at No.10 spells fresh trouble for UK assets We suspect that the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, weakness in the pound, and continued trouble for the FTSE 100. In view of... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Answering your questions on our market forecasts We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Revising down our forecasts for riskier currencies With the outlook for the global economy worsening further and the Fed still on the war path, we have revised down our forecasts for many G10 “high-beta” currencies and several EM currencies. Asia Drop... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We still think the backdrop is favourable for the US dollar Although it has fallen back a little recently, we continue to think the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies as global economic growth disappoints. Asia Drop-In (30 th June, 09:00... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the sharp falls in the lira have much further to run The Turkish lira is once again depreciating sharply against the US dollar and we expect this to continue. We revise our forecasts for the lira and pencil in further substantial weakness by the end of... 15th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ to raise ceiling on 10-year yields The weakening in the yen to a 24-year low and a crack in the Bank of Japan’s ceiling on 10-year yields today is putting significant pressure on policymakers to respond. FX intervention is a... 13th June 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key points on the renminbi’s spillovers to EM currencies While the spillovers from the renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar over the past two months have in some ways been similar to previous periods of renminbi weakness, the impact on other... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Fed’s “QT” supports our case for a stronger US dollar While we doubt it will be the main driver of the US dollar, the ongoing reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (i.e., “quantitative tightening”, or “QT”) adds to our conviction that the... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
