FX Markets Update Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Sterling still likely to weaken later this year While the pound has outperformed all major G10 currencies so far this year, we still expect it to depreciate against the greenback later in the year as the Bank of England eases monetary policy more... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Yen intervention: fourth time’s the charm? Japan’s intervention in support of the yen is not enough in itself to generate a sustained rebound in the yen. But with the FOMC (finally) nearing its first rate cut while the BoJ continues to tighten... 17th July 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the outlook for the renminbi & the yen The continued weakness of the renminbi and the yen against the US dollar despite the narrowing of interest rate differentials via-a-vis the US is something of a conundrum, but our sense remains that... 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing French election risk for the euro The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Latin American assets may rise further Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Zloty’s appreciation may come to a halt Having lagged behind other emerging market (EM) currencies for most of the post-pandemic period, the Polish zloty has lead the pack over the past six months. While we think that most of this rally has... 3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD to outperform other G10 currencies We think the kiwi and the aussie strength will continue over the next couple of years as we expect they will be among the last developed economies to start an easing cycle. 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Examining the divergence between EM credit spreads and FX For much of the past year, the dollar has strengthened against emerging market (EM) currencies even as EM sovereign dollar bond spreads have narrowed. One way or another, that is unlikely to last. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Rand strength likely to reverse course soon Despite the rand’s recent outperformance, we think risks around the upcoming election in South Africa, among other factors, will cause renewed weakness in the currency before long. In view of wider... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Slower easing cycle may not provide relief for the real Although the monetary easing cycle in Brazil is entering a much slower phase, we think the Brazilian real will remain under pressure against the dollar over the coming quarters. In view of wider... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Another look at risk premia; four key areas of uncertainty Despite the correction in equity markets over the past month, risk premia generally remain low across financial markets. While we expect this to continue as an AI-driven bubble inflates in equity... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Will China devalue the renminbi? Chinese policymakers won’t risk reliving the turmoil of 2015 by engineering a sudden devaluation of the renminbi. They may allow the currency to weaken gradually over the coming years to help industry... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
