Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers among most exposed to coronavirus fallout The economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be particularly severe for a number of frontier markets. Due to its deep integration into global supply chains, Vietnam’s economy will... 27th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap IMF in focus Argentina’s new government began official talks with the IMF over the future of its record-breaking bailout programme this month, and Lebanese policymakers appear to be warming to the idea of striking... 29th January 2020 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Rally in Argentine & Lebanese bonds to go into reverse Argentine and Lebanese sovereign dollar bond spreads have narrowed over the past month, but we think that they will widen again before long. The narrowing has been most dramatic in Argentina, where... 19th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Distressed bonds likely to head in opposite directions Ecuador this month joined the handful of frontier economies where sovereign dollar bonds are trading at levels commonly associated with default. But with the IMF likely to stand by the government, we... 28th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Default fears crystallising The spotlight has shifted back onto weak sovereign debt positions in Frontier Markets this month after the election of a left-wing president in Argentina and growing political instability in Lebanon... 31st October 2019 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap A spotlight on inflation problems The weakest balance sheets in the emerging world are concentrated in the Frontier Markets and, as a result, balance of payments crises occur more regularly. This lies behind Venezuela’s crisis, but... 30th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign debt in the spotlight Besides Argentina, EM sovereign debt risks are most acute in the smaller frontier markets. Investors have, rightly in our view, become more concerned about Lebanon’s public finances. And the... 30th August 2019 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign bond rally likely to go into reverse The recent rally in frontier sovereign dollar bonds is unlikely to be sustained and we expect spreads to widen in Argentina, Ukraine and parts of the Middle East. 30th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets underperform Frontier financial markets have made gains over the past month, but have generally underperformed their emerging market counterparts. The performance of equity markets has been mixed. And currencies... 27th June 2019 · 8 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Balance sheet fears escalate in frontier markets Sovereign dollar bond spreads widened much further in frontier markets than in other EMs over the past month on the back of concerns over fragile balance sheets. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Growth in frontiers has probably bottomed out Aggregate frontier market GDP growth probably slowed to its weakest pace since early 2017 in Q1 and, while we think that this should mark the bottom of the cycle, activity in most frontiers will... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Key frontier market currencies hold up well, for now Frontier market currencies have fared better than their emerging market counterparts during the recent market turmoil. But their balance sheets are generally much weaker, making currencies vulnerable... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap External pressures keep frontiers in tightening mode The monetary tightening cycles that began last year in many of the large EMs are petering out fairly quickly. But in many of the smaller Frontier markets, interest rate hikes are still at the top of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political turmoil puts debt burdens under the spotlight Frontier dollar bonds have rallied this month, due partly to improved risk appetite, but also progress on IMF deals (Ukraine and Sri Lanka) and the political news flow (Venezuela and Lebanon). But it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier economies losing steam Growth in frontier economies eased over the course of 2018 and we expect activity to be soft in 2019. At a regional level, we think that growth will slow further in frontier economies in Emerging Asia... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign debt worries in the spotlight Frontier market dollar debt markets have been rattled in recent months. Part of this is due to the fall in oil prices, which helps to explain the widening of spreads in Venezuela and Nigeria. But that... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
