Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier sovereign debt distress still high While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Debt risks: the not so bad, the bad and the ugly Sovereign debt risks are back in focus as some frontiers appear to be drifting closer to default. We remain most concerned about default risks in Tunisia and Pakistan, particularly in light of this... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Five questions and answers on frontier default risks The spreads of sovereign dollar bonds over US Treasuries are in distressed territory in almost a third of EMs covered in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, with the majority of those being frontier markets. In... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Three positive stories from frontier markets There has been plenty of doom and gloom surrounding the outlook for frontier economies over recent months, particularly Sri Lanka and Tunisia. But there are some places where we hold more upbeat views... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign debt risks becoming more acute Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened significantly in several Frontiers over the past couple of months, driven largely by country-specific factors. There are reasons to be hopeful that outright... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Where are frontier sovereign debt risks greatest? The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Outlook darkens The disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF later this month is a boon for some Frontier Markets that face very high borrowing costs. But beyond this, it is hard to find many... 10th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Covax delays cast a dark cloud Extended delays to vaccine supply from India to the Covax facility will keep rollout in many Frontier Markets stuck in first gear. Social distancing measures will have to stay in place for longer... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap On the “vaccine boost” to frontier economies Frontier economies will receive only a relatively small direct economic boost from the roll-out of vaccines next year. But the indirect benefits via higher commodity prices, capital inflows and... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap New debt relief plans face major hurdles Zambia became the first African government to default during the current crisis and debt risks are high in several other Frontier Markets, including Ghana and Kenya. The G20’s recently-announced... 23rd November 2020 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Debt talks at an impasse Hopes for more debt relief for distressed EMs have been dampened in recent weeks. This Frontier Markets Monthly looks at why we are now at an impasse, the role of China, which EMs need help most, and... 27th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap The latest on sovereign debt restructurings Recent moves by Angola and Zambia to restructure their public debts (or seek to) are unlikely to act as a trigger for a wave of similar steps by other debt-distressed frontiers. Indeed, their... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Debt restructurings: lessons from Argentina & Ecuador Argentina and Ecuador’s swift debt restructuring deals may provide a blueprint for other debt-distressed sovereigns. But these deals are not quite the success stories they seem at first sight. In any... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap A closer look at frontier dollar bond issuance A handful of frontier market governments have issued Eurobonds over the past few months, but these could create vulnerabilities further down the line, particularly in Egypt, Ukraine and Bahrain... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
