Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation to 1.4% in November ensures that the SNB will not be at all tempted to raise interest rates in December, despite the Bank’s recent statements to the contrary... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q3.) The 0.3% q/q increase in GDP was better than the consensus and our own forecasts (consensus: 0.1%; CE: 0.0%) but there was a downward revision to Q2 data from 0.0% to -0.1%. The main driver of growth... 1st December 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (November) The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in November means it is becoming increasingly untenable for policymakers to claim that they are not even thinking about rate cuts. We are now pencilling in a... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey and Spain inflation (November) Despite the rise in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in November, it remained consistent with the economy at best stagnating in Q4. (See Chart 1.) Meanwhile, inflation data released by Spain... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q3) and Ifo Survey (Nov.) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November mirrors the increase in the Composite PMI released yesterday but leaves the index deep in contractionary territory. It does not change our... 24th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November 2023) Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. Meanwhile, the breakdown provides further evidence that the labour market... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sept.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in September and is likely to continue contracting in the final quarter of the year, primarily due to weak demand. 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) and Employment (Q3 2023) We do not think the slight acceleration in employment growth in Q3 is a sign of things to come. With business surveys deep in contractionary territory and firms’ hiring intentions falling sharply, the... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (Oct. 2023) The increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in October was broadly as anticipated and does not change our view that, while it will be a close call, policymakers are most likely to raise... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Oct. 2023) Despite the unexpected jump in Norway’s headline and core inflation rates in October, we still think the Norges Bank is most likely to leave rates on hold in December. 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in September and, in our view, will remain weak in the coming months as the economy falls into recession. 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (Sept.) German industrial production fell much more than anticipated in September and the prospects for the winter months look very poor. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (October 2023) Final PMIs released today confirmed the preliminary estimates and are consistent with our forecast that euro-zone GDP will contract again in Q4. They also suggest that price pressures are continuing... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) Swiss headline inflation remained unchanged in October at 1.7% and although the core rate rose for the first time in eight months we expect inflation to stay below 2% for the foreseeable future... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & HICP (October) The euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and the continued weakness of the surveys at the start of Q4 suggests that the outlook is poor. Meanwhile, inflation fell sharply again in October but the period... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
