Europe Rapid Response Second round results of France’s parliamentary election The exit polls for the second-round of France’s legislative election are certainly a surprise. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) appears to have become the biggest group in parliament, while... 7th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2024) Retail sales ticked up in May and we expect them to continue to rise gradually from here. 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The slump in German industrial production in May fully reverses the increase in output at the start of the year and suggests that German industry is not out of the woods yet. We expect output to... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing... 4th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June 2024) It already seemed unlikely that the ECB would cut interest rates at its meeting in July, and June’s inflation data – particularly the continued strength of services inflation – will reinforce... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (June) Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained high... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France, Italy & Spain HICP (June) Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (June 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for June is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP and suggests that price pressures continue to ease in manufacturing but remain strong in the services... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024) The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2024) June’s decline in the Ifo business climate indicator (BCI) to a very low level highlights that even after Germany’s economy grew in Q1, it is far from back to full health. 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2024) The sharp drop in the euro-zone Composite PMI in June suggests a solid recovery in the euro-zone economy is not a done deal, with activity having apparently stagnated this month. Meanwhile, aggregate... 21st June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (June 2024) Norges Bank’s verbal guidance and updated interest rate projections reinforce the message that it won’t start cutting interest rates until the end of the year at the earliest. 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June. 2024) Today’s decision by the SNB to reduce its policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was correctly anticipated by two thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters. (We were in the minority anticipating a hold.) In... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (May) The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, remained at 2.3% in May, but the core measure (CPIF excluding energy) rose slightly for the second month in a row. We think the Riksbank will leave... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2024) The 0.1% m/m decrease in euro-zone industrial production in April was slightly weaker than the published consensus forecast of 0.2% rise, but expectations will have fallen since Ireland’s data were... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EU duties on Chinese EVs Reports that the European Commission will “provisionally apply” additional duties of up to 25% on imports of EVs from China from July, on top of the 10% tariff already in place, are in line with... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
