Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February left the index close to a post-pandemic low and suggests that the German economy continued to shrink in Q1. 23rd February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Flash Euro-zone PMIs (Feb. 2024) The flash PMIs for February suggest that the economy is still struggling and that price pressures are, if anything, intensifying. This does not dramatically change the picture for the ECB, but it does... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The underlying measure of inflation fell further in January and supports the case for the Riksbank to ease monetary policy soon. We expect the first rate cut in May. 19th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2023) Data released this morning confirm that the euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we expect this to continue in the first half of the year. 14th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The large decrease in headline inflation in Switzerland in January means the inflation rate looks sure to undershoot the SNB’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%. Along with the fall in core inflation, we think this... 13th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Jan. 2024) January’s continued fall in core inflation in Norway, and renewed fall in the headline rate, support our view that price pressures will ease more quickly this year than Norges Bank is forecasting. We... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect this to continue throughout 2024. 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2024) January’s euro-zone inflation data were a little stronger than we had expected after the data for Germany and France were released yesterday. While the euro-zone’s headline and core inflation rates... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP Inflation (January 2024) National data published so far suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone came down a little more than we had expected in January. This makes us more confident in our view that the ECB... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2023) The euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we think that it will flat-line in the first half of this year too as the effects of past monetary tightening continue to feed through and fiscal policy... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB sticks to its guns Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. In the forthcoming press conference, Christine Lagarde is likely to push back against... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank policy rate to fall quickly in H2 Norges Bank today reiterated that it will leave its policy rate at 4.5% “for some time”. But we think that inflation will fall rapidly this year, so when the Bank does start to cut rates, it will do... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan. 2024) January’s euro-zone Composite PMI, published this morning, remained consistent with the economy contracting by around 0.2% q/q. 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
