Europe Rapid Response

Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2024)

Switzerland’s sporting event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in over a year and slightly above our forecast of 0.4%. At the margin this may give the SNB some...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone GDP (Q2, 2nd est.), Employment (Q2) and Industrial Production (June)

14th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2024)

Retail sales fell in June but we think they will gradually rise over the remainder of the year on the back of strong real household income growth and falling interest rates.

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (July)

Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in July at 1.3%, keeping it below the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 1.5%. Reassuringly for policymakers, private services inflation fell for the first time in six...

2nd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (July 2024)

The small fall in services inflation in July is probably just enough for a September rate cut to remain the base case. But with underlying price pressures still high, the decision will be a close call...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany and Spain HICP (July)

The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone GDP (Q2) & EC Survey (July)

The euro-zone’s recovery continued at a moderate pace in Q2 and it should get a small boost from the Paris Olympics in Q3. But the bigger picture is that the timeliest surveys are fairly weak and we...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q2 2024)

National-level data released so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 and the weakening of the surveys in July suggests GDP growth may have eased further this quarter.

30th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden GDP (Q2)

Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy contracted by 0.8% q/q in Q2, more than offsetting the 0.7% increase in Q1. The data were significantly weaker than expected by...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

German Ifo Survey (Jul.)

The large fall in the German Ifo BCI in July, which follows a similar drop in the Composite PMI published yesterday, adds to the impression that the rebound in Germany’s economy earlier in the year...

25th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2024)

The flash PMIs for July suggest that the euro-zone’s recovery may be fizzling out at the start of Q3, while output price pressures eased but remained high in the services sector.

24th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB Policy Announcement (July 2024)

Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates was in line with expectations. A cut in September still seems more likely than not...

18th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (May 2024)

Industrial production in the euro-zone fell again in May and we think the outlook remains poor.

15th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (June)

The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, dropped to just 1.3% in June, almost half the level in May and the lowest level since the end of 2020. This was far below the consensus forecast of 1...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (June 2024)

The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the end of this year, rather than waiting until 2025 as its current guidance...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read