Europe Rapid Response France & Spain HICP (September 2024) September’s inflation data from France and Spain all but confirm that the headline rate in the euro-zone as a whole – released next week – will show a sharp decline to below the 2% target. 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sept. 2024) The SNB’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.0% today shows that it prefers a gradual approach to policy loosening, but the accompanying statement indicates clearly that further cuts are on... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (September 2024) 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (September 2024) The fall in the German Ifo in September adds to the evidence that the German economy is back in recession. With growth in the rest of the euro-zone also slowing, the likelihood of a rate cut by the... 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Flash Euro-zone PMIs (Sep. 2024) The big decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy is slowing sharply, that Germany is in recession and that France’s Olympics boost was just a blip. 23rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (September 2024) There was never any doubt that the ECB would cut its deposit rate by 25bp today, to 3.5%. Otherwise, the policy statement is largely as expected and does not change our view that the ECB will probably... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Jul.) The big drop in German industrial production in July adds to the sense that the sector is facing a deep crisis and that, having contracted in Q2, the German economy may fall back into a technical... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2024) Retail sales increased by 0.1% in July, and we expect them to rise further in the coming months, though at only a fairly modest pace. 5th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State Elections The big rise in populist parties in elections in two East German states at the weekend doesn’t threaten the survival of the governing coalition but it points to some political challenges in Germany... 2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August 2024) We doubt that August’s unexpected increase in services inflation will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September. 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August) The increase in the EC’s economic sentiment indicator for August was largely due to a jump in the measure for France. It still suggests that the economy is broadly stagnating. 29th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2024) The rise in the flash PMIs for August is not as good as it looks as it was largely due to a boost from the Paris Olympics and the survey still points to GDP growth slowing in Q3. With price pressures... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
