Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) Another larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation in Switzerland will increase concerns that the country could temporarily enter deflation next year. This will pile on pressure on... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (October) Euro-zone inflation came in a touch higher than expected in October but was still below the ECB’s projections for Q4. While policymakers have pushed back this week against the case for faster rate... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & EC Survey (October) Euro-zone GDP growth came in stronger than expected in Q3 and the early indications are the inflation will be a little higher than anticipated in October. However, with surveys pointing to growth... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France and Spain GDP (Q3 2024) Third quarter GDP data reported so far suggest that the aggregate euro-zone growth rate will be a little higher than we had forecast in Q3, but the big picture is that, the Olympics and Spain aside... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden GDP (Q3) Preliminary data show that Sweden’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the third quarter, far below the consensus expectation and the Riksbank’s forecasts (0.5% and 0.2% respectively). At face value... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (October 2024) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in October still left it deep in recessionary territory. With growth in the rest of the euro-zone also weak, we now expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate by... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2024) The low activity and price components of the flash PMIs for the euro-zone in October will strengthen the conviction of policymakers who think the ECB should step up the pace of rate cuts. We now think... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2024) Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by 25bp, the ECB stuck to its guidance about data dependence and making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. But the press release also acknowledged... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2024) While the 1.8% m/m rise in industrial production in August was the strongest monthly rise in over a year, it is probably not the start of a sustained recovery. We think production is more likely to... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (September 2024) Core inflation in Norway was again below Norges Bank’s forecast in September, strengthening the case for it to start cutting interest rates this year. 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Aug.) The big increase in German industrial production in August isn’t much reason to celebrate as it was only enough to offset the previous month’s sharp decline. The big picture remains that industrial... 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (September) September’s drop in inflation in Sweden will reinforce the Riksbank’s inclination to keep cutting interest rates at the next few meetings. 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (August 2024) Euro-zone retail sales edged up in August but were still below their level in May. The big picture is that overall consumption growth is likely to remain subdued. 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) The unexpectedly sharp fall in Switzerland’s headline and core inflation in September will cement the SNB’s dovish stance and supports our view that the Bank will cut its key policy rate by at least... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September 2024) The drop in euro-zone headline inflation below 2% in September should be sufficient to persuade the ECB to cut rates in October, even though services inflation remained high. 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
