Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2024) This morning’s 50bp rate cut by the SNB, which brought the policy rate to 0.5%, came as a surprise to most economists though it was balanced by a revised policy statement which implies that... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (October 2024) October’s decline in euro-zone retail sales followed a good third quarter for retailers. We suspect that the strength in sales in Q3 was just a one off and that growth will be subdued in the coming... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (November) While all three key measures of inflation in Sweden rose in November, this does not change the underlying story that inflation is around its target level and is likely to stay there over the next year... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The uptick in Swiss inflation in November is likely to prove short-lived and should not prevent the SNB from cutting interest rates again in December and further next year. 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (November 2024) The continued strength of euro-zone services inflation in November reduces the chance that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50bp in December. But one-off base effects stopped services inflation from... 29th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (November 2024) The EC survey was little changed in November and is still consistent with weak growth at best, while the price components suggest that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (November 2024) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November left it even deeper into recessionary territory and is consistent with our view that the German economy will continue to struggle in the... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.), Employment (Q3) & Industrial Production (September) The pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth to 0.4% q/q in Q3 is unlikely to be sustained. Timelier business and consumer surveys suggest that growth will slow in Q4, and we expect it to remain subdued next... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (September 2024) Euro-zone retail sales rose in September rounding off a good quarter for retailers. We suspect that sales will continue to increase, but only slowly as overall consumption growth is likely to remain... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2024) The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 50bp today to 2.75%, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that it plans only two more 25bps rate cuts to take it to a “terminal” rate of 2.25%. Given... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
