Europe Rapid Response

German Ifo Survey (Jul.)

The large fall in the German Ifo BCI in July, which follows a similar drop in the Composite PMI published yesterday, adds to the impression that the rebound in Germany’s economy earlier in the year...

25th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2024)

The flash PMIs for July suggest that the euro-zone’s recovery may be fizzling out at the start of Q3, while output price pressures eased but remained high in the services sector.

24th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB Policy Announcement (July 2024)

Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates was in line with expectations. A cut in September still seems more likely than not...

18th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (May 2024)

Industrial production in the euro-zone fell again in May and we think the outlook remains poor.

15th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (June)

The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, dropped to just 1.3% in June, almost half the level in May and the lowest level since the end of 2020. This was far below the consensus forecast of 1...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (June 2024)

The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the end of this year, rather than waiting until 2025 as its current guidance...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Second round results of France’s parliamentary election

The exit polls for the second-round of France’s legislative election are certainly a surprise. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) appears to have become the biggest group in parliament, while...

7th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2024)

Retail sales ticked up in May and we expect them to continue to rise gradually from here.

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

German Industrial Production (May)

The slump in German industrial production in May fully reverses the increase in output at the start of the year and suggests that German industry is not out of the woods yet. We expect output to...

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (June)

Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing...

4th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (June 2024)

It already seemed unlikely that the ECB would cut interest rates at its meeting in July, and June’s inflation data – particularly the continued strength of services inflation – will reinforce...

2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Flash HICP (June)

Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained high...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

France, Italy & Spain HICP (June)

Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB...

28th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (June 2024)

The EC business and consumer survey for June is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP and suggests that price pressures continue to ease in manufacturing but remain strong in the services...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read