Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Jul.) The big drop in German industrial production in July adds to the sense that the sector is facing a deep crisis and that, having contracted in Q2, the German economy may fall back into a technical... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2024) Retail sales increased by 0.1% in July, and we expect them to rise further in the coming months, though at only a fairly modest pace. 5th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State Elections The big rise in populist parties in elections in two East German states at the weekend doesn’t threaten the survival of the governing coalition but it points to some political challenges in Germany... 2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August 2024) We doubt that August’s unexpected increase in services inflation will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September. 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August) The increase in the EC’s economic sentiment indicator for August was largely due to a jump in the measure for France. It still suggests that the economy is broadly stagnating. 29th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2024) The rise in the flash PMIs for August is not as good as it looks as it was largely due to a boost from the Paris Olympics and the survey still points to GDP growth slowing in Q3. With price pressures... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2024) Alongside the Riksbank’s decision to reduce the policy rate by 25bp today to 3.5%, policymakers also lowered their rate expectation for the end of this year from either 3.25% or 3.0% at the June... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2024) Switzerland’s sporting event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in over a year and slightly above our forecast of 0.4%. At the margin this may give the SNB some... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2, 2nd est.), Employment (Q2) and Industrial Production (June) 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2024) Retail sales fell in June but we think they will gradually rise over the remainder of the year on the back of strong real household income growth and falling interest rates. 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in July at 1.3%, keeping it below the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 1.5%. Reassuringly for policymakers, private services inflation fell for the first time in six... 2nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2024) The small fall in services inflation in July is probably just enough for a September rate cut to remain the base case. But with underlying price pressures still high, the decision will be a close call... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (July) The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) & EC Survey (July) The euro-zone’s recovery continued at a moderate pace in Q2 and it should get a small boost from the Paris Olympics in Q3. But the bigger picture is that the timeliest surveys are fairly weak and we... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q2 2024) National-level data released so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 and the weakening of the surveys in July suggests GDP growth may have eased further this quarter. 30th July 2024 · 1 min read
