Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2023) Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. There is no mention of ending PEPP reinvestments early or raising banks’ reserve requirements... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Oct.) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the Composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2023) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in October left it well into contractionary territory and the breakdown provides further evidence that price pressures are easing. The survey will... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP Breakdown (Sept.) The breakdown of euro-zone HICP inflation data for September, published today, reveals that there was a significant fall in inflation for tourism-related services as the summer season ended. This... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German ZEW (October) Although the headline ZEW survey for Germany rose in October it was still very weak, while the low reading for the current conditions index supports our view that the economy is in recession. 17th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (September) The drop in inflation in September was a little smaller than we and the consensus had anticipated and strengthens the case for the Riksbank to raise rates further. We are therefore sticking with our... 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (September) As a result of September’s weaker-than-expected inflation data from Norway, we now think that Norges Bank’s tightening cycle is over. 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (August) The further drop in German industrial production in August was better than it looked as it was driven by volatile components. However, it still left manufacturing output very subdued, and we expect... 9th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The drop in retail sales in August and weakness in the final PMIs for September are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will fall into recession in the second half of 2023. 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September.) The rise in Switzerland’s headline inflation rate in September was largely due to the increase in oil prices in recent months, which caused energy inflation to rise sharply. In contrast, core... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September) September’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation was largely due to base effects, but core inflation also came in below expectations. This reinforces our view that the ECB has finished raising interest... 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (September) The weak outturn for the euro-zone’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in September supports our view that the economy will contract in Q3. But the rise in the employment expectations and firms’... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI and Spain HICP (Sep.) The big drop in CPI inflation across German states in September all but confirms that German and euro-zone HICP inflation also fell sharply this month. While this mainly reflects base effects related... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Sep.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) confirmed that the German economy remained in the doldrums in September. We continue to expect contractions in GDP in both Q3 and Q4 of this year. 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September left it still in contractionary territory. We think a further contraction in activity lies ahead in the remainder of this year. 22nd September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank & Norges Bank Policy Announcements (September 2023) Following today’s rate hikes, the Riksbank and Norges Bank are now at, or close to, the end of their tightening cycles. Both central banks’ new projections suggest that they are more likely than not... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
