Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (December 2023) The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone in December was revised up significantly from the flash estimate of 47.0 to 47.6, meaning that it was unchanged compared to the November reading. Nonetheless... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The renewed decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in December echoes the message from the Composite PMI released last week and unequivocally points to a continued downturn. It looks very... 18th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December) The drop-back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in December provides more evidence that the economy is in recession as domestic and foreign demand contracts. 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (Dec. 2023) Today’s decision by Norges Bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50% marks the end of its tightening cycle. Looking ahead, we have pencilled in a faster pace of rate cuts next year than... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2023) The SNB kept rates on hold at 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, but the monetary policy statement was dovish as policymakers placed less emphasis on selling FX assets and reduced their inflation... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Nov. 2023) The rise in the headline rate and slight fall in the core rate in November was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So we think Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with a final interest... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation to 1.4% in November ensures that the SNB will not be at all tempted to raise interest rates in December, despite the Bank’s recent statements to the contrary... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q3.) The 0.3% q/q increase in GDP was better than the consensus and our own forecasts (consensus: 0.1%; CE: 0.0%) but there was a downward revision to Q2 data from 0.0% to -0.1%. The main driver of growth... 1st December 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (November) The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in November means it is becoming increasingly untenable for policymakers to claim that they are not even thinking about rate cuts. We are now pencilling in a... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey and Spain inflation (November) Despite the rise in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in November, it remained consistent with the economy at best stagnating in Q4. (See Chart 1.) Meanwhile, inflation data released by Spain... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q3) and Ifo Survey (Nov.) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November mirrors the increase in the Composite PMI released yesterday but leaves the index deep in contractionary territory. It does not change our... 24th November 2023 · 2 mins read
