Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Jan. 2024) January’s continued fall in core inflation in Norway, and renewed fall in the headline rate, support our view that price pressures will ease more quickly this year than Norges Bank is forecasting. We... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect this to continue throughout 2024. 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2024) January’s euro-zone inflation data were a little stronger than we had expected after the data for Germany and France were released yesterday. While the euro-zone’s headline and core inflation rates... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP Inflation (January 2024) National data published so far suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone came down a little more than we had expected in January. This makes us more confident in our view that the ECB... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2023) The euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we think that it will flat-line in the first half of this year too as the effects of past monetary tightening continue to feed through and fiscal policy... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB sticks to its guns Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. In the forthcoming press conference, Christine Lagarde is likely to push back against... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank policy rate to fall quickly in H2 Norges Bank today reiterated that it will leave its policy rate at 4.5% “for some time”. But we think that inflation will fall rapidly this year, so when the Bank does start to cut rates, it will do... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan. 2024) January’s euro-zone Composite PMI, published this morning, remained consistent with the economy contracting by around 0.2% q/q. 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (2023) Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year. 15th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Dec. 2023) The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges Bank’s most recent interest rate hike will have been the last in this tightening cycle. We think... 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.) & EC Survey (Dec.) The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have contracted than expanded in the fourth quarter of last year. They also suggest that while... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline rate will drop back sharply in January due to base... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (December) December’s jump in headline inflation in the euro-zone was widely anticipated and entirely due to a base-effects driven increase in energy inflation, so it won’t alter ECB policymakers’ views on the... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
