Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (September) The weak outturn for the euro-zone’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in September supports our view that the economy will contract in Q3. But the rise in the employment expectations and firms’... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI and Spain HICP (Sep.) The big drop in CPI inflation across German states in September all but confirms that German and euro-zone HICP inflation also fell sharply this month. While this mainly reflects base effects related... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Sep.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) confirmed that the German economy remained in the doldrums in September. We continue to expect contractions in GDP in both Q3 and Q4 of this year. 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September left it still in contractionary territory. We think a further contraction in activity lies ahead in the remainder of this year. 22nd September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank & Norges Bank Policy Announcements (September 2023) Following today’s rate hikes, the Riksbank and Norges Bank are now at, or close to, the end of their tightening cycles. Both central banks’ new projections suggest that they are more likely than not... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sep. 2023) The SNB’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 1.75% was a big surprise, although it left the door open for further hikes. We do not expect any further increases in the policy rate as we expect... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (September 2023) The ECB’s decision to raise interest rates by a further 25bp today probably brings the current tightening cycle to an end. But given the strength of underlying inflation, we expect rates to remain at... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (August) Although the drop in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in August was bigger than the consensus had anticipated, it will not prevent policymakers from raising its key policy rate by another... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in July and we think it will continue to do so over the remainder of the year in the face of weakening demand. 13th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) Norway’s inflation rate came in broadly in line with the Norges Bank’s expectations in August, suggesting that policymakers will go ahead with their plan to raise rates from 4.0% to 4.25% next week... 11th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s second-quarter GDP data means the economy is now thought to have essentially flat-lined since the fourth quarter of last year. With business surveys having... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) Aggregate German industrial output fell sharply again in July and the fall was even larger if the construction and energy sectors are excluded. We expect production to drop further in the rest of the... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in July and, in our view, will keep declining over the rest of the year as the effects of tighter monetary policy continue to feed through to consumers. 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (August 2023) The final PMIs published today were revised down from the already-low levels reported in the flash measure two weeks ago. The Services Business Activity PMI slumped compared to July, and although the... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q2.) Weak manufacturing and investment weighed on the Swiss economy in Q2, leaving GDP unchanged from the previous quarter. We think activity will be sluggish for the rest of the year as the effects of... 4th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (August.) Switzerland’s headline inflation rate was unchanged in August as a fall in core inflation was offset by the impact of rising fuel prices. This is the last inflation print before the SNB’s next meeting... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
