Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway performing well, Ingves bows out Norway’s Q3 GDP data support our view that the country will be one of Europe’s best performers in the coming quarters, but it won’t be immune to the weakness elsewhere in the continent. Next week, we... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession to begin in Q4 as inflation broadens We doubt that the recent strength in some of the official euro-zone activity data will last. The timelier surveys unanimously point to weaker activity to come, and the headwinds to growth from rising... 18th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Housing risks rising; strong activity in Sweden Policymakers at the Riksbank and Norges Bank face a tricky balancing act. The latest housing indicators from Sweden and Norway have been very weak, implying that prices will fall. But October’s... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Sifting through a week of ECB comments The raft of comments by ECB policymakers this week suggests that further rate hikes are on the horizon, but that the pace of tightening will slow soon. And with officials stressing how difficult it is... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Peak rates approaching in Norway, Switzerland The Norges Bank shifted to a slower pace of tightening this week, and the latest data on the housing market suggest that there are downside risks to our forecast for the policy rate to hit 3% and stay... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still a long way from a pivot This week’s data releases have done nothing to change our key calls on the euro-zone economy: that it is heading for a deeper recession and higher inflation than most expect, and that the ECB will be... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slower growth, strong labour markets Data published this week showed that Sweden's economy performed better than expected in Q3, but the timelier surveys point to a contraction in Q4. Next week, the Norges Bank's rate decision will be a... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish labour data point to further rate hikes Data for Sweden show that the labour market remained tight in September. Together with the recent strong inflation numbers this suggests that there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riskbank’s... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi out, Meloni in; new EZ forecasts We published our latest quarterly Euro-zone Economic Outlook this week, with the main message being that we now expect the euro-zone to experience an even more extreme case of stagflation. Otherwise... 21st October 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks dominate, French strikes fuel pay pressure Even the hawks on the ECB Governing Council have seemed reluctant to call publicly for a 100bp hike at the Bank’s late-October meeting, but we still think that is the most likely decision and expect... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s housing market, Swiss price pressures Data released this week show that the Riksbank is in a tricky situation, with consumer price inflation accelerating but the housing market looking very weak. Other data suggest that core inflation in... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggles, Danish central bank intervenes A raft of economic data for Sweden, including August’s GDP indicator, published this week added to the evidence that its economy is slowing and heading for recession this winter. Meanwhile, Denmark’s... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 100bp ECB hike on the cards; recession looks certain The account of September’s ECB meeting and the latest economic data make a 100bp rate hike by the ECB this month, which would bring the deposit rate to 1.75%, look increasingly likely. Next week... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ risks turmoil even if governments stay responsible While we don’t expect euro-zone governments to engage in UK-style large discretionary fiscal loosening, Italy’s weak public finances and/or the ECB’s likely reluctance to intervene in government bond... 30th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss and Nordic economies heading south This week we got yet more data showing that economies in the region are slowing. Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator for September plummeted and suggested that growth has abruptly stalled, and... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
