Europe Economics Weekly Greek bond plan faces big hurdles Last week’s news of proposals for a voluntary “rollover” of Greek debt brought some hope that the policy impasse over the crisis may soon be over. Crucially, there were signs that the ECB − until now... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery past the peak Attention regarding the euro-zone’s debt crisis has remained focused on the continuing spat between the EU and the ECB on whether or not Greece should be allowed to undertake some form of “soft” debt... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No "soft" options for Greece There are growing signs that the EU will allow Greece to undertake a “soft” debt restructuring, probably involving the voluntary exchange of debt for bonds of longer maturities. This could ease the... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong surface hides widening cracks The solid 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP in Q1 has left our previous forecast of 1.0% growth in 2011 overall looking too downbeat. We have pushed it up to 1.5%, but an even stronger figure of 2.0% or so... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the Portuguese bail-out work? It is not surprising that the positive market reaction to the initial details of Portugal’s package last week was short-lived. On the face of it, the bail-out may turn out to be more successful than... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek default worries deepen Last week was another bad one for Greece. Markets are now increasingly convinced not only that Greece will default, but that it may happen before the European Stabilisation Mechanism comes into... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the euro ever fall? The further rise in the euro against the US dollar, in the face of speculation that a euro-zone country might default on its debts in the foreseeable future, might seem to indicate that the single... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Debt restructuring fears grow Hopes that a Portuguese bail-out would mark a major turning point in the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis took a blow last week as comments from euro-zone officials led to renewed concerns about... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB takes the lead, for now Last week’s decision by the ECB to raise interest rates before other major central banks mainly reflected its different attitude and approach to inflation-targeting. But we suspect that there were... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation worries will ease in time Last week’s major euro-zone data releases will have done nothing to ease the ECB’s fears about inflation. March’s rise in headline CPI inflation will be particularly worrying, given that it may have... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Default worries set to deepen Concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone economies will default on their debts have intensified over recent weeks. With the Portuguese situation and uncertainties over the permanent crisis... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB shy away from an April rate hike? Recent events in Japan and the sharp fall in euro-zone equity prices mean that an interest rate hike by the ECB in April is now less certain. For now at least, we continue to think that the Bank will... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Political hurdles threaten grand plan Expectations for the EU summit to discuss the latest policy proposals to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis have fallen so far that the scope for disappointment in the near term may be limited... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB raises the stakes This week’s EU summit to discuss the so-called “Grand Bargain” of policy proposals to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis already had a lot riding on it. But last week’s strong indication from the ECB... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the German revival save the periphery? Healthy rises in the euro-zone business surveys in February add to evidence that the region as a whole and Germany in particular have made a strong start to the year. But while a bout of robust German... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Modest revival continues, but peripheral concerns remain On the face of it, the news that the euro-zone economy expanded by just 0.3% in Q4 was pretty disappointing. But note that bad weather in Germany might have reduced euro-zone quarterly GDP growth by 0... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
