Europe Economics Weekly Debt restructuring fears grow Hopes that a Portuguese bail-out would mark a major turning point in the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis took a blow last week as comments from euro-zone officials led to renewed concerns about... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB takes the lead, for now Last week’s decision by the ECB to raise interest rates before other major central banks mainly reflected its different attitude and approach to inflation-targeting. But we suspect that there were... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation worries will ease in time Last week’s major euro-zone data releases will have done nothing to ease the ECB’s fears about inflation. March’s rise in headline CPI inflation will be particularly worrying, given that it may have... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Default worries set to deepen Concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone economies will default on their debts have intensified over recent weeks. With the Portuguese situation and uncertainties over the permanent crisis... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB shy away from an April rate hike? Recent events in Japan and the sharp fall in euro-zone equity prices mean that an interest rate hike by the ECB in April is now less certain. For now at least, we continue to think that the Bank will... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Political hurdles threaten grand plan Expectations for the EU summit to discuss the latest policy proposals to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis have fallen so far that the scope for disappointment in the near term may be limited... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB raises the stakes This week’s EU summit to discuss the so-called “Grand Bargain” of policy proposals to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis already had a lot riding on it. But last week’s strong indication from the ECB... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the German revival save the periphery? Healthy rises in the euro-zone business surveys in February add to evidence that the region as a whole and Germany in particular have made a strong start to the year. But while a bout of robust German... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Modest revival continues, but peripheral concerns remain On the face of it, the news that the euro-zone economy expanded by just 0.3% in Q4 was pretty disappointing. But note that bad weather in Germany might have reduced euro-zone quarterly GDP growth by 0... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A weak end to 2010 On the face of it, recent data suggest that the euro-zone is on track to expand at a pretty healthy pace in Q4. But we suspect that the disruption caused by the bad weather will mean that Q4’s growth... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The Grand Bargain - bazooka or popgun? Peripheral euro-zone bond yields fell further last week in apparent anticipation of the so-called “Grand Bargain” of policy measures. But the markets’ optimism raises the danger that the package falls... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB & rising euro pose new threats Last week’s successful first EFSF bond issue was hailed by some as a strong vote of confidence in the euro-zone. We are not so sure. The rise in Portuguese bond yields back up to the 7% danger level... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EFSF plans won't solve the crisis European policymakers’ hopes of preventing the peripheral debt crisis from escalating further are continuing to focus heavily on the role of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Not only... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EFSF plans won't solve the crisis European policymakers’ hopes of preventing the peripheral debt crisis from escalating further are continuing to focus heavily on the role of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Not only... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB boxes with shadows In adopting a more hawkish tone last week, when core euro-zone inflation is running at just 1.1%, the ECB has increased doubts over its ability to grasp the seriousness of the situation facing the... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in euro-zone inflation to prove short-lived The euro-zone economic data released since Christmas has been fairly encouraging and suggests that, for now at least, the region continues to expand at a pretty healthy pace. But on the face of it... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
