Europe Economics Weekly Break-up worries finally hitting the euro Last week’s rise in German bund yields might have reflected expectations that Germany has finally accepted the need to shoulder more of the peripheral economies’ fiscal risk. After all, German... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up fears pile pressure on the core There are still few signs that euro-zone policymakers are close to placing a firewall around the region’s most troubled economies. This, combined with the deteriorating economic outlook, led some of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy on the road to default We have long warned that Italy represents the single biggest threat to the currency union and last week, that threat loomed large. Bond yields rose to unsustainably high levels, suggesting that Italy... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Papandreou shatters the illusion Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s extraordinary manoeuvrings last week forced euro-zone leaders to acknowledge openly for the first time that a country could leave the euro-zone. Indeed... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers fail to get ahead The plans agreed at last week’s EU summit look like another example of policymakers sprinting to catch up with events, but failing to get decisively ahead. We are not suggesting that the positive... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time, again Aware of what is at stake and under the watchful glare of the world, euro-zone policymakers might finally put their differences aside and produce the goods at the forthcoming EC council meetings and... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are policymakers about to take decisive action? Signs that European policymakers may finalise a “comprehensive response” to the euro-zone debt crisis at the European Council meeting on 23rd October prompted the euro to climb sharply against the... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banks’ capital needs could be greater than feared The ECB took some fairly bold steps to improve commercial banks’ liquidity last week. But given the growing likelihood of default by some euro-zone governments, fears about banks’ solvency have surged... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No closer to resolving the crisis On the face of it, developments last week might have suggested that policymakers are inching closer to resolving the euro-zone crisis. However, the most radical suggestions have come from outside the... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core policymakers resisting calls for decisive action Despite some dire pronouncements from global policymakers last week, there remain few signs that their counterparts in Europe are preparing to pull out all the stops and secure the future of the... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for another recession Last week proved to be another rollercoaster week for Greece. We now think that the Government may end up defaulting within months or perhaps even weeks. With concerns about banks’ solvency likely to... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core and periphery still at loggerheads More signs emerged last week that policymakers in the core economies are unwilling to soften the conditions attached to current or future bail-outs. For now, though, Greece looks set to bow to EC, ECB... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone heading back into recession? The latest data have provided considerable support to our long-held view that the euro-zone recovery would grind to a halt. For now, we continue to expect a long period of near economic stagnation... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Collateral squabble casts doubt on Greek bail-out This week, the markets’ focus has fallen back on Greece. In addition to long-standing doubts over whether a sufficient number of private-sector creditors will sign up to the Greek debt exchange scheme... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers still unwilling to pull out all the stops Signs last week that European policymakers remain unwilling to take major steps towards fiscal union, coupled with very weak economic data and a renewed slump in equity prices, did nothing to alter... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French fears deepen crisis Last week saw markets respond fairly positively to the ECB’s bond purchases and Spanish and Italian bond yields fell sharply from dangerously high levels. At the same time, though, France has been... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
