Europe Economics Weekly Spring bond redemptions may prove pivotal A new year may have begun, but it has not provided the euro-zone with a fresh start. The latest economic data confirm that the economy remains in a precarious position and the euro has continued to... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch year for the euro-zone With the euro-zone debt crisis ending the year much deeper and broader than it started it, it seems unlikely that the next 12 months will see a repeat of the (just about) “muddling through” process... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banks unlikely to ride to their governments’ rescue A closer look at the euro-zone policymakers’ new plan to “save the euro” has not altered our view that it will not bring the debt crisis to an end, especially since several key components of the deal... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s silver bullet turns out to be a blank At their summit last week, euro-zone leaders agreed on the basics of a new “fiscal compact” which should help to reduce the risks that another debt crisis such as that seen over the last two years is... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets gamble on the ECB The financial markets seem to be gambling that the European Central Bank and Germany are bluffing when they say they are not about to come to the euro’s rescue. But given the obstacles still in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up worries finally hitting the euro Last week’s rise in German bund yields might have reflected expectations that Germany has finally accepted the need to shoulder more of the peripheral economies’ fiscal risk. After all, German... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up fears pile pressure on the core There are still few signs that euro-zone policymakers are close to placing a firewall around the region’s most troubled economies. This, combined with the deteriorating economic outlook, led some of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy on the road to default We have long warned that Italy represents the single biggest threat to the currency union and last week, that threat loomed large. Bond yields rose to unsustainably high levels, suggesting that Italy... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Papandreou shatters the illusion Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s extraordinary manoeuvrings last week forced euro-zone leaders to acknowledge openly for the first time that a country could leave the euro-zone. Indeed... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers fail to get ahead The plans agreed at last week’s EU summit look like another example of policymakers sprinting to catch up with events, but failing to get decisively ahead. We are not suggesting that the positive... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time, again Aware of what is at stake and under the watchful glare of the world, euro-zone policymakers might finally put their differences aside and produce the goods at the forthcoming EC council meetings and... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are policymakers about to take decisive action? Signs that European policymakers may finalise a “comprehensive response” to the euro-zone debt crisis at the European Council meeting on 23rd October prompted the euro to climb sharply against the... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banks’ capital needs could be greater than feared The ECB took some fairly bold steps to improve commercial banks’ liquidity last week. But given the growing likelihood of default by some euro-zone governments, fears about banks’ solvency have surged... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No closer to resolving the crisis On the face of it, developments last week might have suggested that policymakers are inching closer to resolving the euro-zone crisis. However, the most radical suggestions have come from outside the... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core policymakers resisting calls for decisive action Despite some dire pronouncements from global policymakers last week, there remain few signs that their counterparts in Europe are preparing to pull out all the stops and secure the future of the... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for another recession Last week proved to be another rollercoaster week for Greece. We now think that the Government may end up defaulting within months or perhaps even weeks. With concerns about banks’ solvency likely to... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read