Europe Economics Weekly Is the crisis back? Having swum against the tide of increased optimism towards the euro-zone for some months, we are wary of the temptation to leap on last week’s events in Italy as a vindication of our position. After... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Exporters to the rescue? Last week’s data brought some encouraging signs that the euro-zone’s export sector is holding up surprisingly well in the face of the strong euro. Nonetheless, a major export revival appears unlikely... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP slump underlines currency threat While the export-driven slump in euro-zone GDP in Q4 did not itself reflect the strength of the euro exchange rate, it further underlined the economy’s vulnerability to the currency’s recent... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona’s words won’t be enough Mario Draghi halted the rise of the euro last week merely by hinting that the ECB might respond to the currency’s strength. But with other central banks taking action to weaken their currencies, we... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are the green shoots of recovery emerging? Last week’s euro-zone data confirmed that the economy will probably fare better in Q1 than in Q4 2012. But for now at least the euro-zone business surveys remain in recession territory. Of course, if... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Currency concerns likely to deepen The ECB’s apparent refusal to engage in the recent outbreak of covert currency wars amongst global policymakers is partly understandable. After all, the single currency’s recent rise has been at least... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can Germany continue to grow in 2013? Last week’s news that German GDP rose by 0.7% in 2012 clearly confirmed that the economy broke no records. But it did well to continue growing at all in such a weak economic and political climate... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB keeps its head in the sand The ECB’s comments last week dealt a blow to any hopes that it might provide more support to the euro-zone economy. With financial market conditions improving, the Bank no longer seems to be... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone policymakers face another demanding year Euro-zone policymakers have created a bit of breathing space for themselves in the latter half of 2012, but we think that there are a number of potential stumbling blocks on the horizon which could... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Armageddon postponed The European Central Bank’s promises helped to prevent Armageddon in the euro-zone in 2012. But it will have to put its money where its mouth is in 2013 and the risk of disappointment is high... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow progress towards banking union The European Council finally managed to reach some important compromises last week, allowing progress to be made towards setting up an EU-wide bank supervisor in the form of the ECB. But, presumably... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB too gloomy? Not likely. Suggestions that last week’s downgrades to the ECB’s economic projections have left it too gloomy look wide of the mark. Against a background of weak global activity, continued austerity and high and... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bail-out deal won't bring lasting calm Last week’s bail-out agreement has prompted some commentators to suggest that Greece’s future in the euro-zone should now be secure until at least next autumn. But we are not convinced. Indeed, given... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Another Greek sticking plaster Euro-zone finance ministers are inching ever closer to a deal on the bail-out which will satisfy their own debt sustainability criteria and in the near term at least avoid a politically troublesome... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core's resilience unlikely to last Last week’s euro-zone economic data brought some reasons for hope. While GDP in the region as a whole fell for the second quarter running in Q3, both Germany and France posted modest expansions... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek stay of execution won’t lift the economic gloom We’re throwing in the towel on a Greek euro exit in 2012. But that’s a matter of timing, not a change in our fundamental position on Greece or on the broader debt crisis. We still envisage a limited... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
