Europe Economics Weekly The periphery is still uncompetitive Labour cost data released last week provided further evidence that the competitiveness gap between the euro-zone periphery and core may be narrowing. While labour costs were little unchanged or lower... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will deflation settle the ECB debate? The commencement last week of the German Constitutional Court hearing into the legality of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) programme has re-stoked the debate over the... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the Troika learning from its mistakes? While the IMF conceded last week that mistakes were made in Greece’s 2010 bail-out programme, it suggested that earlier debt restructuring was the way forward rather than bigger bail-outs. Meanwhile... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Pressure grows on the ECB to do more Although euro-zone businesses and consumers are becoming less pessimistic and policymakers are softening their stance on austerity, there is still little sign that the region is on the cusp of an... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Liquidity concerns could soon deepen again The continued falls in commercial banks’ deposits at the ECB are in part a reflection of an improvement in conditions in the banking sector. But further falls could see liquidity falling to levels... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Record euro-zone recession unlikely to end here The euro-zone’s Q1 GDP release made very grim reading. At least continued economic weakness will keep the pressure on the region’s policymakers to do more. But fiscal leniency has so far been very... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the industrial recovery be sustained? March’s national industrial production figures suggest that the sector gained momentum over the course of Q1. But we suspect that the revival could soon fizzle out. After all, domestic growth... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will falling inflation push the ECB into bolder action? The recent run of weak economic data prompted the ECB to cut its policy rate last week. But as inflation itself continues to fall, pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy further is likely to... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will less austerity rescue the euro-zone? Hopes that euro-zone policymakers are set to sanction a reduction in the pace of fiscal tightening across the region rose further last week after EC President Jose Manuel Barroso suggested that the... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Record trade surplus not a sign of strength February’s record-breaking euro-zone trade surplus of €12bn suggests that the external sector provided the wider economy with a boost in Q1. But we doubt that the sector is about to kick start an... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The BoJ can’t do the ECB’s job for it The drop in peripheral euro-zone bond yields following the Bank of Japan’s announcement that it is set to expand its quantitative easing programme dramatically has further relieved the near-term... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB about to unveil another bazooka? Despite ECB President Mario Draghi’s assurance last week that the Bank “stands ready to act”, he gave very little indication of what support it might offer. An imminent interest rate cut is possible... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Market calm provides limited comfort The relative calmness of the financial markets during the Cyprus episode and after the Italian election might be seen as an indication that the worst of the euro-zone crisis is now behind us. But it... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Plan B won't end Cyprus's problems While the successful formulation of a new plan to avoid bankruptcy in Cyprus remains in the balance, it looks likely that some form of package will be put together in order to ensure the continued... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany likely to prevail in austerity debate Last week brought mixed news in the debate on growth versus austerity. On the one hand, EU leaders discussed and (to some extent) advocated growth policies at an EU summit. What’s more, the European... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB really out of ammo? The ECB’s inaction despite predicting continued recession and below-target inflation suggests that the central bank is either out of policy ammunition or holding what little it has back for an even... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
