Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB about to unveil another bazooka? Despite ECB President Mario Draghi’s assurance last week that the Bank “stands ready to act”, he gave very little indication of what support it might offer. An imminent interest rate cut is possible... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Market calm provides limited comfort The relative calmness of the financial markets during the Cyprus episode and after the Italian election might be seen as an indication that the worst of the euro-zone crisis is now behind us. But it... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Plan B won't end Cyprus's problems While the successful formulation of a new plan to avoid bankruptcy in Cyprus remains in the balance, it looks likely that some form of package will be put together in order to ensure the continued... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany likely to prevail in austerity debate Last week brought mixed news in the debate on growth versus austerity. On the one hand, EU leaders discussed and (to some extent) advocated growth policies at an EU summit. What’s more, the European... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB really out of ammo? The ECB’s inaction despite predicting continued recession and below-target inflation suggests that the central bank is either out of policy ammunition or holding what little it has back for an even... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the crisis back? Having swum against the tide of increased optimism towards the euro-zone for some months, we are wary of the temptation to leap on last week’s events in Italy as a vindication of our position. After... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Exporters to the rescue? Last week’s data brought some encouraging signs that the euro-zone’s export sector is holding up surprisingly well in the face of the strong euro. Nonetheless, a major export revival appears unlikely... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP slump underlines currency threat While the export-driven slump in euro-zone GDP in Q4 did not itself reflect the strength of the euro exchange rate, it further underlined the economy’s vulnerability to the currency’s recent... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona’s words won’t be enough Mario Draghi halted the rise of the euro last week merely by hinting that the ECB might respond to the currency’s strength. But with other central banks taking action to weaken their currencies, we... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are the green shoots of recovery emerging? Last week’s euro-zone data confirmed that the economy will probably fare better in Q1 than in Q4 2012. But for now at least the euro-zone business surveys remain in recession territory. Of course, if... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Currency concerns likely to deepen The ECB’s apparent refusal to engage in the recent outbreak of covert currency wars amongst global policymakers is partly understandable. After all, the single currency’s recent rise has been at least... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can Germany continue to grow in 2013? Last week’s news that German GDP rose by 0.7% in 2012 clearly confirmed that the economy broke no records. But it did well to continue growing at all in such a weak economic and political climate... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB keeps its head in the sand The ECB’s comments last week dealt a blow to any hopes that it might provide more support to the euro-zone economy. With financial market conditions improving, the Bank no longer seems to be... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone policymakers face another demanding year Euro-zone policymakers have created a bit of breathing space for themselves in the latter half of 2012, but we think that there are a number of potential stumbling blocks on the horizon which could... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Armageddon postponed The European Central Bank’s promises helped to prevent Armageddon in the euro-zone in 2012. But it will have to put its money where its mouth is in 2013 and the risk of disappointment is high... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow progress towards banking union The European Council finally managed to reach some important compromises last week, allowing progress to be made towards setting up an EU-wide bank supervisor in the form of the ECB. But, presumably... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read