Europe Economics Weekly US shutdown underlines uncertain global backdrop The US federal government shutdown is unlikely to have major direct effects on the European economy and financial markets provided that it is resolved fairly quickly. Nonetheless, the episode has... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral labour markets are healing, but very slowly Evidence mounted last week that euro-zone unemployment has peaked. Particularly encouragingly, many of the peripheral economies have now enjoyed several months of falling unemployment. What’s more... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys point to positive, but modest, growth in Q3 Last week’s surprise (to most people) decision by the US Federal Reserve not to “taper” its asset purchases has some near-term benefits for the euro-zone. But it does not eliminate the longer-term... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction brings the ECB respite, for now Last week’s surprise (to most people) decision by the US Federal Reserve not to “taper” its asset purchases has some near-term benefits for the euro-zone. But it does not eliminate the longer-term... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Data dent hopes of French renaissance July’s French industrial production data were a blow to hopes that the economy is staging a longawaited recovery. With business surveys at low levels, consumer confidence weak, unemployment rising and... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Spain staging an export-led recovery? Last week’s data from Spain were pretty encouraging – in particular, the PMI export orders index for August suggested that Spain’s robust export recovery continued in Q3. But other data indicate that... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Households back on their feet, but not yet ready to run Data released last week point to a brightening near-term outlook for euro-zone households, suggesting that consumption growth will gather pace in Q3. But given that a meaningful recovery in the labour... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out? German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s acknowledgement last week that Greece needs more aid seemed like a statement of the obvious. Encouragingly, however the size of any new bail-out will be... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession over, but crisis unresolved While the second quarter’s 0.3% expansion in euro-zone GDP may partly have reflected temporary factors, there seems little reason to doubt that the region’s record-long recession is finally at an end... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial upturn has weak foundations The national industrial production figures for June provided further evidence that euro-zone GDP might have expanded in Q2. Nonetheless, a closer look at the data suggests that the figures are perhaps... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi muddies the waters President Draghi failed to convincingly improve the ECB’s transparency last week. He added some detail to last month’s pledge that interest rates would “remain at present or lower levels for an... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB’s monetary pillar is still very weak Last week’s euro-zone data revealed a further pick-up in some measures of real economic activity, with the composite PMI for July raising the prospect that the region’s two-year recession could come... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mounting strains on the ESM The lending capacity of the euro-zone’s bail-out funds is coming under strain again. €289bn of the ESM’s €500bn lending capacity has already been committed and developments in Portugal, Greece and... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ominous signs for German exports Last week’s German trade data revealed a sharp drop in exports, suggesting that the economy’s export engine is not performing particularly well. Much attention has focused on the deteriorating outlook... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still at the back of the pack The ECB joined the great forward policy guidance race last week. But when it comes to the broader provision of monetary policy support, it remains firmly at the back of the pack. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking union: progress of sorts Recently, euro-zone policy makers have made commendable progress towards banking union. They have now agreed an ‘operational framework’ for the region’s bail-out fund, the ESM, to recapitalise banks... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
