Europe Economics Weekly The ECB’s monetary pillar is still very weak Last week’s euro-zone data revealed a further pick-up in some measures of real economic activity, with the composite PMI for July raising the prospect that the region’s two-year recession could come... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mounting strains on the ESM The lending capacity of the euro-zone’s bail-out funds is coming under strain again. €289bn of the ESM’s €500bn lending capacity has already been committed and developments in Portugal, Greece and... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ominous signs for German exports Last week’s German trade data revealed a sharp drop in exports, suggesting that the economy’s export engine is not performing particularly well. Much attention has focused on the deteriorating outlook... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still at the back of the pack The ECB joined the great forward policy guidance race last week. But when it comes to the broader provision of monetary policy support, it remains firmly at the back of the pack. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking union: progress of sorts Recently, euro-zone policy makers have made commendable progress towards banking union. They have now agreed an ‘operational framework’ for the region’s bail-out fund, the ESM, to recapitalise banks... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The periphery is still uncompetitive Labour cost data released last week provided further evidence that the competitiveness gap between the euro-zone periphery and core may be narrowing. While labour costs were little unchanged or lower... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will deflation settle the ECB debate? The commencement last week of the German Constitutional Court hearing into the legality of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) programme has re-stoked the debate over the... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the Troika learning from its mistakes? While the IMF conceded last week that mistakes were made in Greece’s 2010 bail-out programme, it suggested that earlier debt restructuring was the way forward rather than bigger bail-outs. Meanwhile... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Pressure grows on the ECB to do more Although euro-zone businesses and consumers are becoming less pessimistic and policymakers are softening their stance on austerity, there is still little sign that the region is on the cusp of an... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Liquidity concerns could soon deepen again The continued falls in commercial banks’ deposits at the ECB are in part a reflection of an improvement in conditions in the banking sector. But further falls could see liquidity falling to levels... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Record euro-zone recession unlikely to end here The euro-zone’s Q1 GDP release made very grim reading. At least continued economic weakness will keep the pressure on the region’s policymakers to do more. But fiscal leniency has so far been very... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the industrial recovery be sustained? March’s national industrial production figures suggest that the sector gained momentum over the course of Q1. But we suspect that the revival could soon fizzle out. After all, domestic growth... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will falling inflation push the ECB into bolder action? The recent run of weak economic data prompted the ECB to cut its policy rate last week. But as inflation itself continues to fall, pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy further is likely to... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will less austerity rescue the euro-zone? Hopes that euro-zone policymakers are set to sanction a reduction in the pace of fiscal tightening across the region rose further last week after EC President Jose Manuel Barroso suggested that the... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Record trade surplus not a sign of strength February’s record-breaking euro-zone trade surplus of €12bn suggests that the external sector provided the wider economy with a boost in Q1. But we doubt that the sector is about to kick start an... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The BoJ can’t do the ECB’s job for it The drop in peripheral euro-zone bond yields following the Bank of Japan’s announcement that it is set to expand its quantitative easing programme dramatically has further relieved the near-term... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read